When the pandemic hit it was a bolt from the blue. Nobody expected it. It wasn’t long before the descent into the great abyss began. You surely remember how horrible that was – the picture below will remind you.
But you also remember conversations soon moved to asking what kind of recovery would the industry have. Was it going to be a V, U, or a swoosh (we thought this one)? Really everyone wanted a V-recovery. After all 2019 was such a blowout year.
Take a look at the data DoT has through June 2022. Here’s your V recovery!Â
Click the double-headed arrow at the bottom right to optimize viewing for your monitor. Select each of the big US airlines (and Breeze) to get a sense of how they’re doing.Â
Having gone through these, we recommend you also take a look at Bill Swelbar‘s note on LinkedIn. Interesting, right? Especially this part: “Never has a more perfect backdrop been present where management and pilot labor have been more aligned: one wants outsized pay rates and the other wants to concentrate labor in the hands of a few that could alter the competitive composition/balance of the industry.”
We have our desired V-recovery. But margins are highly variable coming out of the pandemic. Margin forecasts are, consequently, equally variable. Interesting times.
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