When the pandemic hit it was a bolt from the blue. Nobody expected it.  It wasn’t long before the descent into the great abyss began.  You surely remember how horrible that was – the picture below will remind you.

But you also remember conversations soon moved to asking what kind of recovery would the industry have.  Was it going to be a V, U, or a swoosh (we thought this one)? Really everyone wanted a V-recovery. After all 2019 was such a blowout year.

Take a look at the data DoT has through June 2022. Here’s your V recovery! 

Click the double-headed arrow at the bottom right to optimize viewing for your monitor.  Select each of the big US airlines (and Breeze) to get a sense of how they’re doing. 

Having gone through these, we recommend you also take a look at Bill Swelbar‘s note on LinkedIn.  Interesting, right? Especially this part: “Never has a more perfect backdrop been present where management and pilot labor have been more aligned: one wants outsized pay rates and the other wants to concentrate labor in the hands of a few that could alter the competitive composition/balance of the industry.

We have our desired V-recovery.  But margins are highly variable coming out of the pandemic. Margin forecasts are, consequently, equally variable.  Interesting times.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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