Subscriber Update on Production, Deliveries, and Orders

This is a follow-up subscriber-only update

on production, deliveries, and orders through March 17th, 2026. Our tracking shows that the first quarter will see many more aircraft produced than delivered, due to problems at both Boeing and Airbus with their best-selling narrow-body models.  For those wishing to subscribe, please click here.

Boeing

Boeing’s problem with the 737 MAX appears to be resolved, and the company began delivering the MAX again last week. It appears the program is back on track, continuing to produce the 737 MAX at its 42-per-month rate, albeit with some deliveries likely delayed from Q1 to Q2.

Boeing has corrected the wiring issue in less than a month. To date, Boeing has produced 120 aircraft through March 18th and delivered 113. Clearly, there was a short-lived delay in delivering about 10 aircraft that experienced the wiring issue. Boeing is also inspecting previously delivered aircraft to determine whether a retrofit is needed, with the aircraft remaining in service until repairs are made, if needed. Boeing produced 50 and delivered 45 aircraft in January; produced 45 and delivered 50 in February; and, through March 18th, has produced 24 and delivered 18. We expect Boeing to catch up early in Q2 with extended delivery delays.

We do not believe this will have a material impact on Boeing’s ability to increase production to a rate of 47 later this year, nor moving to a rate of 52 in early 2027.

Airbus

Airbus has had difficulties with fuselage panels for the A320neo family in early 2026, resulting in late deliveries. Airbus has produced 141 aircraft in 2026, but delivered only 94 through March 18th, indicating the depth of the problem.

Airbus produced only 35 narrow-body aircraft in January but delivered only 25; produced 51 in February but delivered only 33; and, through March 18th, produced 37 but delivered 23. Airbus inventories have grown with undelivered aircraft.

When we examine the production and deliveries by engine type, we discover the following anomaly at Airbus. 68 GTF-powered aircraft were built and 59 delivered in 2026 through March 18th, while of the 55 LEAP-powered aircraft built, only 22 were delivered. One would expect to see relative parity here, which may indicate an unannounced issue. Stay tuned, but these numbers seem to indicate a problem.

While Airbus has cited Pratt & Whitney as a potential bottleneck and a reason for reducing its 2026 production guidance, it appears that the LEAP engine is the one powering undelivered aircraft early in the year. We will look into this further and communicate with our subscribers about the issue.

The following table shows aircraft production by model through 18 March 2026 for both OEMs:

The following table shows deliveries by model through 18 March 2026 for both OEMs:

On the order front, Airbus just booked an order from AerLease for 23 A320neos and 77 A321neos, and Atlas Air signed for 20 firm + 20 options for A350F freighters. Boeing is expecting a major order from China during the next Xi-Trump summit, with 500 aircraft rumored to be the order’s magnitude. We look forward to the announcement, timing, and structuring of that order.

The Bottom Line

Both OEMs have struggled to sustain higher production rates, as supply chain constraints and quality issues continue to surface in the post-pandemic environment. Airbus supply agreements with Pratt & Whitney will be a critical issue to resolve for them to reach a rate of 75 in 2027. Pratt & Whitney needs to balance OEM deliveries with parts for engine overhauls and AOGs for its existing and beleaguered customers. Striking that balance has upset Airbus, who want more engines from PW. Unfortunately, capacity shortfalls in the industry are likely to continue into 2027.

We have adjusted our short-term guidance for Airbus production for 2026 from 904 at the beginning of the year to 873 aircraft as of today. Further adjustments may be necessary, depending on Airbus’s success and timing for its quality issue resolution.

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