After the dramatic scenes at Tokyo Haneda on Tuesday, when a Japan Airlines Airbus A350-900 crashed into a Japan Coast Guard De Havilland Canada Dash 8 on the runway after landing, the airline industry once more is focused on that ever-present risk: runway incursions. Haneda is the kind of accident that had just been avoided on several occasions at US airports in 2023, which is a reason for concern for IATA, the airline association. As we mentioned in a separate story about aviation safety in 2023, IATA highlighted the number of high-profile incidents in the US that could be classed as runway incursions. Nick Careen, SVP of Operations, Safety, and Security, stated during IATA’s Global Media Day on December 6 that various runway incursions in the US might have a common factor. “A significant shortage of fully trained controllers has been identified as a serious issue in the US that has cascading effects on the performance of the US Air Traffic Control Organization such as the use of extensive over-time requirements for controllers, potentially leading to over-fatigue and employee burnout,” said Careen. Recent concerns However, the risk is also identified in the December Global Action Plan for the Prevention of Runway Incursions, drafted by IATA, Airports Council International (ACI), and ATC-organization CANSO and validated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). “Despite repeated attempts over the decades to end incursions, they still occur, as evidenced by a spate of incidents at U.S. airports in 2023. These close calls heightened concerns about the potential for disaster. While the United States experienced nearly two dozen of these serious incidents in 2023, the risk of runway incursions is a global issue,” the action plan says. “As air traffic operations increase, the risk of runway incursions also is likely to increase unless new safety defenses are implemented. While general aviation aircraft are involved in as many as 70 percent of all incursions in some parts of the world, data show upward trends not only in the overall rate of high-risk runway incursions but also in airliner involvement in those incidents.” It isn’t helpful if the flight crew is unwilling to assist and participate in an incursion investigation, as the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) found out. The board investigated the runway incursion at New York JFK on January 13, 2023, when an American Boeing 777 crossed active runway 4L without clearance while a Delta 737-900 was on the take-off roll. “As a result of the flight crew’s repeated unwillingness to proceed with a recorded interview, subpoenas for their testimony have been issued,” the NTSB said in its preliminary report. 81 incursions since 1941 Looking at the number of runway incursions that have resulted in fatalities, their number is statistically very low. Aviation Safety Network (ASN), a Dutch website that tracks incidents for many years, has included 81 incursions in its database since 1941. Until 1977, it counted 33 fatalities in 15 incidents. Then, on Mach 27, 1977, two Boeing 747s of KLM and Pan Am collided on the runway of Los Rodeos in Tenerife, resulting in 583 fatalities in what still is the worst air disaster. From Tenerife until October 2019, ASN reports 415 casualties in another 40 runway incursions. On the back of the total number of flights that have been operated between 1941 and 2019 and the billions of people that have boarded aircraft, 1.079 casualties are probably too low to make a lasting impression. Aerial picture of runway 34R at Tokyo Haneda on January 3. At the bottom left are the remains of the Japan Airlines Airbus A350. At the top is the wreck of the Dash 8 of the Coast Guard. Even before Haneda, IATA said in December that it had planned various activities to promote runway safety through training courses and runway excursions and incursions action plans. But this is not new. IATA, ICAO, ACI, Eurocontrol, the FAA, and many other stakeholders have consistently offered training programs and workshops for years. ICAO’s website shows toolkits and manuals first published in 2005. ICAO’s most recent version of its own Global Runway Safety Action Plan was released in November 2017. “Although the number of runway incursion accidents reported between the period of 2008 to 2016 is very low, the number of runway incursion incidents remains high (at a rate of 1 report per day according to IATA STEADES data). There is a very high fatality risk associated with runway incursion accidents,” the ICAO report says. It refers to Tenerife as the worst-ever runway incursion. Contributing factors The ICAO report identifies a number of top contributing factors to incursions. On top of the list is inadequate training of air traffic controllers, pilots, and drivers of ground vehicles. The lack of procedures and regulatory oversight are other factors, as is the aerodrome design with a complex layout of runways and taxiways. Poor maintenance and the absence of markings and lights can confuse pilots. The December 2023 Global Action Plan confirms most of these factors but adds the variability in human performance under a high workload as a contributing factor. The plan also notes that no system exists that warns of incursions: “Unlike the airborne collision avoidance system (ACAS/TCAS), which serves as the final technological barrier in the skies, there exists no universally implemented last line of defense against runway collisions.” The report also says: “More than one-third of high-risk runway incursions could have been averted through better situational awareness technologies that assist air traffic controllers in detecting potential runway conflicts. Taxiway and runway stop-bars or similar functional barriers can significantly strengthen runway status awareness for pilots.” Communication All studies and action plans point to communication. “A breakdown in communications between air traffic controllers and pilots or airside vehicle drivers often related to the read-back/hear-back procedure,” says ICAO in the 2017 document. In a 2012 presentation, Korn Mansumitchai, currently President of the pilot union IFALPA in the Asia/Pacific region and Captain of a Thai Airways A350, highlighted the communication breakdown, the loss of situational awareness, and the failure to respond to errors as major factors leading to runway incursions. Manusumitchai showed 2011 data, which stated that 63 percent of runway incursions are caused by pilot mistakes, 19 percent by vehicles of pedestrians entering a runway, and 18 percent by air traffic control. Airports should have clearly designed layouts, while new technology should assist in preventing incursions, the global action plan says. This is Frankfurt Airport. (Flughafen Frankfurt) While the crew might not be familiar with the airport, airport markings are deficient, and the ATC controller’s workload is too high, communication is the common factor. Things can go extra wrong when language proficiency is at stake. Manusumitchai referred to Tenerife as one of the various accidents in which this was at issue, but also a runway collision in Milan in 2001 or a mid-air collision over India in 1996. The first indications are that communication is also a major factor in the Haneda accident as the surviving Captain of the Dash 8 has offered a conflicting statement about his departure clearance. Many have also pointed to the inappropriate language used by Tokyo ATC and the crew of various aircraft around the time of the accident on Tuesday, although bad translation from Japanese to English might play a role here. Recommendations The December Global Action Plan presents 127 recommendations to reduce the risks of runway incursions. A priority is empowering and equipping personnel by fostering a culture “that prioritizes safe runway operations over commercial pressures, emphasizing the importance of taking sufficient time for critical safety tasks, promoting mental readiness, raising awareness about fatigue, nurturing positive team dynamics, and encouraging informed decision-making.” This should be mainly done through enhanced and recurrent training that specifically focuses on scenarios involving runway incursions. The plan also calls for the introduction of new technology, with systems that are “capable of providing real-time awareness of aircraft and vehicle positions, navigation route assistance, detection of deviations, and timely alerts for potential runway incursions and collisions.(…) Immediate alerts for air traffic controllers, pilots and maneuvering area vehicle drivers in the event of a potential collision or unauthorized runway entry are vital components.” Enhanced procedures for runway operations, communication protocols, enhanced aerodrome visual aids, improved aerodrome design, and enhanced safety management in general are other recommendations. The Haneda tragedy, in which five occupants of the Dash 8 were killed when the aircraft was in a place it shouldn’t have been for whatever reason, will hopefully result in more runway safety awareness. While the number of potential accidents must be countless, the fact that disaster was averted and incidents are forgotten might result in complacency.