The Next Generation of Aircraft – Part 2: Regional Jets |

Despite the impact of COVID-19 on our industry, aerospace manufacturers are still planning for the future, looking at potential future models and gaining a competitive edge on their competitors. But the business case, timing, and economics for those aircraft have changed, and with new technologies a decade or so away from maturity, the next generation will be an interesting mix of programs. We are featuring a four-part series on future aircraft technologies. In part 1 we examined turboprops over 40 seats. In part 2, today, we examine regional jets. Later this week, in part 3, we will examine narrow-body aircraft, and in part 4, wide-body aircraft programs. Part 2: REGIONAL JETS The regional jet market has for many years been dominated by two players, Embraer and Bombardier. With Bombardier’s sale of the CRJ program to Mitsubishi and cessation of production, Embraer is the only current western producer of a regional jet, the E-175. The high tech replacement, the E175-E2, with new engines, is heavier than allowed by scope clauses in the United States and has been postponed until 2023. The chart below shows Regional Jets and development time frames for new models: Mitsubishi is entering the market with a new competitor, the SpaceJet M90 scheduled for entry into service in 2022. This much-delayed program has had development issues and also does not meet scope clause requirements for the United States market. The smaller M100 that meets US scope clause requirements is not scheduled to arrive until 2024, which coincides with the next contract re-negotiation point at which scope clauses might change. With the CRJ program, now owned by Mitsubishi, out of production but with many aircraft in service generating service revenues, the company gained an established service and support network in addition to aircraft development expertise that should help both of its programs. COMAC, after a 14-year development process, has introduced the ARJ-21 into service in China, this year expanding to three of the major airlines in China. COMAC has always viewed the ARJ-21 as an aircraft from which it would gain experience to be applied to the C919 and future programs, and the aircraft has served that role. But with design beginning more than a decade ago, the program relies on the last generation of technology and is, essentially, a newly-built aircraft using older and less efficient technology. The aircraft is filling its role in helping establish the commercial aircraft industry in China, and in that light is a success. Sukhoi’s Superjet, built in Russia, has not fared particularly well outside of Russia. Initially co-marketed with a Russian-Italian consortium, the aircraft has significant western content and is modern and relatively efficient. A crash into a mountain during a demonstration tour, followed by a crash with a terrible fire in service with Aeroflot has not helped the reputation of the aircraft. Nonetheless, the aircraft is gaining popularity with Russian airlines, but unfortunately not outside the country. The future, in the west, appears to be a two-horse race between Embraer, with long-term success in the market, and a new entrant, Mitsubishi, who after struggles had to acquire expertise from Bombardier, which left the regional market. In the near term, given product development issues, Embraer will be the winner. Over the longer term, Mitsubishi could emerge to become an interesting competitor but will need to complete its development tasks on time and on-budget to gain credibility with regional airlines. Future products may include a next-generation regional platform from Embraer in the 2036 time frame as the E2 program begins to wind down, and potentially an upgraded ARJ-31 from COMAC in the early 2030s. Sukhoi plans an advanced version of the SSJ in the 2028 time frame, aimed primarily at the Russian market. Our bet in this market would continue to be Embraer, who currently have the best selling model in this segment over the last decade, and a strong customer base. They are the player Mitsubishi, COMAC, and Sukhoi need to beat in this sector.

US Flight Planner	Airbus vs Boeing
US Airline Schedule Performance	Daily Production & Deliveries

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