US Airlines Traffic & Load Factor Forecast

We updated our model with the latest US DoT T-100 data.

The upper chart shows traffic back to 1995.  The lower chart shows the load factor over the same period.  Twenty-eight years offers a nice long trend.

What is interesting is that traffic has recovered faster than the forecast anticipated.  But the load factor is below forecast.  But forecasts use identical rules.

Both charts show the highly desired V-recovery everyone thought would not happen.  Air travel demand is highly inelastic, much to the joy of everyone in the industry.

Click on the airlines listed to see how these charts change for each one.

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About The Author

Addison Schonland Partner

Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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