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Boeing did not provide an official 2025 delivery target, focusing instead on stabilizing production. But sources like Forecast International predicted that Boeing would deliver 590 aircraft. Various industry analysts suggested targets in the 590-610 aircraft range.
2025 in Pictures
The charts and tables shared come from both our public and subscriber models. (We therefore appreciate your subscription)
Our delivery estimate was for 540, and we are delighted to announce that overnight, Boeing beat that number, with our tracking showing 541 this morning.
If we use the 590 as a “new” target, can Boeing deliver another 50 aircraft by month’s end? Let’s go over the numbers.
Finding 50 December Deliveries
Here’s a chart showing our production proxy. Boeing roared into 2025 and, as reported by several sources, seemingly got winded early in December. Note that the December number is essentially through the 10th. It is going to rise over the next three weeks and may well end looking less winded.
Boeing averaged ten first flights/week for the year. If 30 more aircraft are produced before the 31st, not all can be delivered. But, of course, there will be work-in-progress aircraft from earlier. Boeing averaged 11 deliveries/week for the year. We expect 33 more deliveries based on this rate.
An Extra The 17 Needed
That leaves 17 more to deliver to reach 590. And this is where it gets interesting; look at the chart. The key for Boeing is MAX deliveries. Our production proxy metric for the MAX shows remarkable improvements over the year. Moving the inventory out has solved many problems. The chart suggests Boeing should be able to deliver 17 more aircraft over its YTD rate by the 31st of the month.
The following chart lists our WIP estimate for Boeing. The MAX 7, MAX 10, and 777-9 are sore points. But there are lots of MAX 8s to work with. Let’s focus on them for the most volume opportunity. We estimate 22 WIP 787s available to add to the delivery target.
Moreover, if we dig into that production proxy, we see this. MAX 8 delivery days have dropped steadily.
Still, can we see 17 extra deliveries? Potentially, yes. In November, Boeing delivered a MAX 8 to Southwest Airlines just 9 days after the first flight. In December, two deliveries, one each for American Airlines and Arajet, were made in 22 days.
What does MAX 8 inventory look like? Here’s our estimate of the 47 WIP.
Our MAX 8 WIP estimate is 30, with a first flight in October, November, and December. Boeing has to deliver at least a dozen from this group and a handful of 787s to make up the 17 needed above its regular rate to reach 590. Don’t forget the military and freighter inventory that is moving steadily.
It’s going to be close and hard work, but we think it’s doable.
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