Boeing Aviation Capital Group Planes
It’s been a very good week. The results were better than expected – 600 deliveries is a very good performance. That’s averaging 50 per month while under an FAA production rate freeze. 2025 was their best year in a long time. Last year, Boeing outsold Airbus; more on this in a moment.
Then came Delta’s order – something chatted about in the industry for over a year already. Then another big order for 50 MAX from Aviation Capital Group.
Outselling Airbus
Should Airbus worry? No, because the duopoly is sitting on a backlog of ~13 years. Airbus and Boeing are not as hungry as they once were.
This huge backlog brings about a sea change: customers don’t have the same leverage they once did. It used to be that buyers could start with a 50% discount and go down from there. That window is almost certainly closing. We expect some customers to offer to pay more to move up the delivery timeline. Sort of like folks who sell their spot in the Ferrari order book.
Customer Loyalty
Another aspect of the story is that the order sizes are great, but the customer brands are noticeable. These customers are industry-leading brands. That means they are influential. They have the resources to do the research and analysis before placing an order. These customers have credibility, so following their lead is a safe bet.
The Boeing order book suffered from the MAX debacles. But customers have come back. A century-old brand has cachet, but its longevity also speaks to its deep resources.
Trickle Down Effect
The good news from Boeing should also be seen from a broader perspective. The bulging order book and long-tailed backlog are excellent news for the stressed supply chain. With this backlog, firms in the supply chain will find it easier to borrow and hire people. The risk profile for the entire silo changes as demand exceeds supply.
This positive trickle-down effect even helps COMAC and Embraer. Literally everybody wins. Well, perhaps not UAC.
Reality Check
Even as Boeing is off to a great start, there’s still a lot of work to do. Three programs need to be certified. Big, important programs. The backed-up revenue from the 777-9 and MAX 10 will be a significant boost. Boeing needs that cash because it has a large amount of debt.
We applaud the good news so early in 2026, but recognize the steep road ahead.
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