As we approach the end of the calendar year, a number of airlines and leasing companies are placing orders, including multiple entities from China with Airbus. What is more interesting is that deliveries for the new aircraft will start in 2028 for some carriers, who reportedly have paid a “premium” to Airbus to jump the queue and the decade long wait in backlog. Aircraft supply is tight with strong continuing demand for A320 family models, which means Airbus will likely be able to increase margins in the near term, particularly since Boeing’s competitor for the A321neo, the MAX 10, remains without certification as we enter 2026.
Orders for 145 additional aircraft
Let’s look at the orders this week. Air China has placed a top-up order for another 60 A320neo family aircraft, Spring Airlines another 30 A320neo and Juneyao Airlines another 25 A320neo aircraft. Chinese lessor China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings (CALC) ordered another 30 aircraft. Those four year-end deals total 145 aircraft and are part of an expected 500 aircraft order from China to Airbus. China Southern and China Eastern are likely to place top-up orders in early 2026.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Meets the Trump Trade War
The strong demand for the A320neo family, a new production line in Tianjin, and continuing US-China trade uncertainty will likely cement the next major aircraft order from China to Airbus rather than Boeing in early 2026. China’s domestic demand continues to grow, with new narrow-body aircraft critical for that market. The tariff war begun by Donald Trump has led to uncertainty amidst mercurial comments by the President that impact international trade, and have led to China re-routing its trade efforts towards Europe. Airbus orders support those objectives, particularly with the local final assembly line located in China, a much more robust operation than Boeing’s 737 interior completion facility.
Delays at COMAC
China’s domestically produced COMAC C919 has hit supply-chain snags, with an expected 75 deliveries in 2025 cut back to 25 deliveries as a result of those issues. Nonetheless, over the longer term, we expect China to become a major player in the market as it looks for Chinese alternatives for western suppliers to avoid trade uncertainty with the US.
Near-Term Market Advantage for Airbus
It appears to us that Airbus is now firmly in the driver’s seat for the Chinese market. Were Airbus to open an A350 final assembly line in China, it would likely win the majority of wide-body orders over the next two decades and gain further strategic advantage over Boeing in what will become the largest market in the world. This will be an interesting element of the global trade wars to watch in 2026.
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