This is an updated model we published some months ago. Perhaps at the time, it was not apparent just how badly the US airlines were out of balance.
The US airline industry has hundreds of highly articulate people who are adept at making their case on social media. Even if you don’t follow any of them directly, you almost certainly have seen some of their content shared. No other mass transportation in the US has such talent to tell their story. The US airline industry has an amazing pool of talent; talent not limited to serving passengers.
Please select an airline to see the individual scenario. If you do not select an airline you get the industry average for the airlines listed. On the second page, you see the actual number of employees per flight. The number of flights is increasing slowing – way too slowly for a recovery sufficient to save the jobs. That is driven by fear among travel consumers of the pandemic’s spread. Airlines have gone through great lengths to make flying as safe as they can. US airliners are the cleanest your correspondent has ever seen. Flight crews are amazingly cordial given the dire situation they face. On the second page, the forecast clearly provides a clue to the number of employees airlines should have given their schedule.
Airlines cannot be health care providers or act as a health care police. The industry faces enough burdens and once the damage is done, it is anyone’s guess how long it takes to recover. Traveling in the US depends on airlines; the country is too big for trains, buses, or driving. This is an industry that warrants immediate attention, even as the rest of the economy also needs support.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.