The market for new aircraft deliveries is expected to grow only marginally over the next twenty years, Boeing says in the latest Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) released on September 14. Until 2040, there will be 43.610 new deliveries worth $7.2 trillion, up only 500 aircraft from last year’s outlook. Boeing expects limited marginal growth of new deliveries. Between 2021 and 2030, Boeing expects 19.330 aircraft deliveries compared to the previous forecast of 18.350 for 2020-2029 in last year’s CMO. In the second decade until 2040, the outlook includes 24.280 deliveries to bring the total to 43.610. This is down on the 24.760 in the second decade in the previous forecast that made a total of 43.110 aircraft. It is also in contrast with Boeing’s own remarks that the first decade until 2030 will still see the effects of the pandemic while the second decade until 2040 shows long-term resilience, particularly from single-aisle aircraft. By segment, there are some variations. Single aisles are slightly up from 32.270 to 32.660 aircraft. Wide-bodies are up from 7.480 to 7.680 aircraft. But Darren Hulst, Vice President of Commercial Marketing, added a remark here: “The best way to describe both the single-aisle and wide-body increases, we removed the difficult year of 2020 and added a trend year of what I would say is normal expected growth in 2030 and 2040. So it reflects recovery, resilience, and long-term demand for replacement in these segments. In the near term, we see a faster recovery in the single-aisle, and in the long term, there is an increase in wide-body demand. But our wide-body forecast remains down by about eight percent compared to 2019 while our single-aisle forecast is almost on par with 2019. So there are some dynamics that are driving that. The most versatile are the ones that will be preferred." Boeing's latest forecast by segment from Darren Hurst's presentation. (Boeing) Where is the middle of the market? While still segmenting aircraft as narrow and wide-bodies, where does that leave the middle of the market? Hulst answered AirInsight’s question like this: “The middle of the market can take on many definitions. Is it medium-range, is it medium size, is it both, is it neither? The pandemic has demonstrated a shift towards versatility. In the long-haul space, it means medium-size wide-bodies like the 787. In the single-aisle space, it means aircraft like the 737-800 and MAX 8 that can operate in multiple different segments successfully without too much risk or without too many costs. In the middle of the market, you are looking at is there a market that exists that needs more capacity than single-aisles and less range than wide-bodies. And how big is that space? We continue to look at how does that market looks like, what do our customers need, when is the technology available, and what does the market size looks like. All those are things that we remain focused on, but our focus first and foremost is our recovery, the industry’s recovery, and how we can best serve our customers' needs." Full freighter market will see significant growth While new freighter deliveries will be slightly down over the next twenty years from 930 in last year’s CMO to 890 now, Boeing sees huge growth coming for full freighters. Until 2040, another 1.200 single-aisle passenger to freighter aircraft will be delivered and some 520 from wide-body conversions. New deliveries of medium-sized wide-bodies (40-80 tons) like the 767 account for 440 aircraft versus 450 large wide-bodies with a capacity of 80+ tons. The total freighter fleet will grow by seventy percent from 2.010 to 3.435 aircraft, said Hulst. The forecast in the previous outlook was a plus of 2.430 freighters. The freighter market is expected to grow by 70 percent to 3.435 aircraft in 2040. (Boeing) The CMO also includes regional aircraft, although they are not in Boeing’s portfolio. The airframer expects 2.390 deliveries in the latest CMO, down from 2.430 last year. “We haven’t seen a big change, we still see that a fundamentally being a replacement market, replacing older-technologies jets. It is still roughly at 3.000 aircraft. It may form an important role but we don’t see that as a growth market”, said Hulst. Need for some 3.000 near-term replacements Apart from new deliveries, the outlook also includes replacement and retirement forecasts. Right now, 450 aircraft have been retired and are being parted out. Another 1.500 have been announced for retirement. And while many regions have seen a strong recovery of notably domestic air travel, still some 4.000-5.000 airliners remain grounded. Twins like its own 787s and 777s have taken over market share from grounded four-engined airliners, notably the 747, A340, and A380. Boeing has calculated that some 3.000 aircraft will be up for near-term replacement, which would save $9.0 billion in fuel costs, reduce maintenance costs by $16 billion, and result in 36 million tons lower carbon dioxide emissions. Long-term, replacements cater for 20.105 aircraft. Taking growth into account, the world’s fleet should include 49.405 aircraft in 2040 compared to 48.400 in last year’s outlook. The world's fleet could grow to 49.405 aircraft in 2040. (Boeing) Including $3.2 trillion for Commercial Aviation, $2.6 trillion for Defense and Space, and $3.2 trillion for Global Services, Boeing's Market Outlook for the next ten years is valued at $9.0 trillion. The 2021-2040 CMO is based on the assumption of 2.7 percent GDP growth per year (2.5 percent in the previous outlook), 4.0 percent Passenger Revenues Kilometers (RPK) and Revenue Ton Kilometers (RTK), on par with that of last year. Net fleet growth will be 3.2 percent compared to 3.1 percent. The aviation industry will need 612.000 new pilots, 886.000 cabin crew, and 626.000 technicians. Boeing will present specific outlooks per region in the coming months.
