Boeing expects only limited growth of new deliveries

The market for new aircraft deliveries is expected to grow only marginally over the next twenty years, Boeing says in the latest Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) released on September 14. Until 2040, there will be 43.610 new deliveries worth $7.2 trillion, up only 500 aircraft from last year’s outlook. Boeing expects limited marginal growth of new deliveries.

Between 2021 and 2030, Boeing expects 19.330 aircraft deliveries compared to the previous forecast of 18.350 for 2020-2029 in last year’s CMO. In the second decade until 2040, the outlook includes 24.280 deliveries to bring the total to 43.610. This is down on the 24.760 in the second decade in the previous forecast that made a total of 43.110 aircraft. It is also in contrast with Boeing’s own remarks that the first decade until 2030 will still see the effects of the pandemic while the second decade until 2040 shows long-term resilience, particularly from single-aisle aircraft.

By segment, there are some variations. Single aisles are slightly up from 32.270 to 32.660 aircraft. Wide-bodies are up from 7.480 to 7.680 aircraft. But Darren Hulst

, Vice President of Commercial Marketing, added a remark here: “The best way to describe both the single-aisle and wide-body increases, we removed the difficult year of 2020 and added a trend year of what I would say is normal expected growth in 2030 and 2040. So it reflects recovery, resilience, and long-term demand for replacement in these segments. In the near term, we see a faster recovery in the single-aisle, and in the long term, there is an increase in wide-body demand. But our wide-body forecast remains down by about eight percent compared to 2019 while our single-aisle forecast is almost on par with 2019. So there are some dynamics that are driving that. The most versatile are the ones that will be preferred.”