Airbus and Boeing: Looking Ahead 2026-2030

What is likely to happen in the commercial aircraft industry in 2026 includes significant increases in production rates at Airbus and Boeing.  Here are some of the headlines we are likely to see:

1. Boeing finally certifies 737 MAX 7 with FAA approval of exemptions

2. Certification of 737 MAX 10 follows shortly thereafter, but may slip to Q1 2027
3. Certification of 777-9 is on target for 1H 2027, but is running 7 years late
4. Closing on the Spirit acquisition by Boeing will help Airbus with this problematic supplier as the spin-offs to Airbus are completed.
5. Boeing will introduce a larger 777 10 variant at the Farnborough or Dubai Air Show, with Airbus also featuring a larger A350-2000, both with additional seating for the Middle East’s three carriers.
6. Supply-chain constraints will continue to impact the industry through 2027, as lagging suppliers catch up with increasing production rates, and Airbus has recognized this by lowering its 2026 A220 target from 14 per month to 12 per month – still a significant increase.
7. Airbus may introduce the A220-500 at Farnborough as Air France wants to become the launch customer of the stretched models to replace older A320s.
8. The duopoly will introduce little to no innovative technologies, but JetZero is scheduled to fly a blended-wing prototype in 2027, which could introduce game-changing technology for the industry.
9. SAF will continue to be in short supply, meeting less than 3% of industry needs
10. Europe will drive environmental activism as the current US Administration rolls back environmental standards in multiple industries.
11. Aircraft production will grow significantly in 2026, with substantial increases in rates at both Airbus and Boeing, taxing the beleaguered supply chain with another significant rate increase in 2027 as the industry attempts to catch up to demand.
12. Demand for aircraft is at an all-time high, and the backlog will soon approach 14,000 aircraft, which, at current rates, would be more than a decade wait for some models – clearly, production rates need to rise substantially to meet demand.
13. The average age of aircraft likely peaked in 2025 at 14.8 years, up from 13.2 years pre-pandemic, and should begin to move downward as new deliveries replace older models.
14. Price increases for aftermarket spares will begin to ameliorate as retirements of older models increase, reducing demand for those parts as the supply-demand balance shifts.
15. Our 2026 aircraft projections for Airbus and Boeing are 1,044 and 708 deliveries, respectively, rising to 1,188 and 870 in 2027. That is about 50% more than 2025, so suppliers need to be ready to change their delivery priorities

The Recovery in Traffic

Looking at industry traffic, we’ve already seen a recovery to nearly the pre-pandemic trend line for passengers flown.  The following chart shows both the trend line and the pandemic’s impact.