IATA: Global Demand Down 3.4 Percent in April

IATA passenger traffic figures for April make clear the impact of the war in the Middle East and Iran on the industry. On average, demand fell by 3.4 per cent year-over-year, with the biggest drop in the region most affected: -46.6 per cent in the Middle East.

The figures show that there has been a delayed effect of the crisis that started with raids by Israel and the US on Iran on February 28. Traffic grew by 6.1 percent in February, but growth slowed down to 2.1 percent in March before reversing and declining by 3.4 percent in April.

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) contracted in two regions. The Middle East was down by 46.6 percent, but that was up from -59.2 percent in March when traffic came to an almost standstill in the first two weeks of the crisis. Airlines reduced capacity by 37.2 percent, resulting in a load factor of 70.6 percent, down 12.5 percentage points. By comparison, capacity was down by 54.7 percent in March.

IATA’ figures don’t specify passengers carried, so the decline for Gulf carriers is not clear. The picture is even more blurred, as airlines don’t disclose monthly or quarterly figures. Only Air Arabia shared its Q1 numbers, which show an 11 percent decline in passengers carried to 2.7 million in its core region in the UAE.

North America
The second region in April where demand contracted was North America by -0.3 percent. In March, demand was still up by 2.3 percent, which was mainly driven by international traffic. The contraction in April can be attributed to domestic at -0.6 percent. Yet, airlines grew capacity by 0.3 percent.

The highest growth was recorded in Latin America and the Caribbean at 5.0 percent, led by international traffic. This was still down to 8.4 percent in March and 9.2 percent in February. April capacity grew by 4.3 percent.

Next was Africa at 2.8 percent. Growth normalised in April after a record-high 20.6 percent increase in March. RPKs in Asia-Pacific were up 1.7 percent year-over-year, which was down from 11.5 percent in March when demand spiked.

Europe saw only modest growth at 0.8 percent in April, down from 7.5 percent in March. Airlines conservatively grew capacity by just 0.4 percent, but this pushed the load factor to 85.4 percent, the highest of all regions.

Domestic
Domestic traffic contracted in India (-2.9 percent) and Australia (-0.4 percent), while other markets saw modest growth. China was up by 1.2 percent in April compared to 13.7 percent in March when China celebrated the New Year. Japan witnessed stable growth at 3.7 percent in April and 4.8 percent in March. Brazil was positive at 2.6 percent, compared to 10.8 percent in March.

Commenting on the April figures, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand.”

Cargo
eek, IATA reported a 4 percent growth in cargo demand in April. Strong demand in Asia was the key driver here. “But this positive news masks a more complex operating environment. Severe disruption at major Gulf hubs due to the war in the Middle East continued to reshape trade routes and constrain capacity on key corridors. With dedicated freighters carrying much of the growth, air cargo is once again keeping supply chains moving amid trade disruptions. The coming months will test how well the sector can absorb continued geopolitical uncertainty and elevated operating costs”, said Walsh.

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Richard Schuurman

Richard Schuurman is a freelance aviation reporter since 2016 and covers commercial aviation and the aerospace industry. He has contributed before to AirInsight between 2018-2024.

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