1Q24 Financial implications for the duopoly

The delivery numbers are in for the period. A delivery is when the OEM gets paid in full for the airplane. What can we distill from the deliveries? Starting with data from UK-based AviationValues we see Boeing is estimated to have generated $3.27 Bn while Airbus $6.24 Bn. That is a huge difference. [caption id="attachment_82926" align="aligncenter" width="533"] AviationValues[/caption] People are focused on the FAA rate restriction holding Boeing to 38 MAXs/month. That is a good place to start, but it misses a much bigger issue. Here are 1Q24 deliveries using our daily delivery tracker. It's not just volume—it's also a story about models. [caption id="attachment_82927" align="aligncenter" width="345"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing does not offer the market what it wants. The impact of the absence of the MAX 10 compounds with each delay in that program’s certification. Here is our estimate of what that might amount to for 1Q24. [caption id="attachment_82928" align="aligncenter" width="338"] AirInsight[/caption] Airbus is potentially 142% ahead in revenue of Boeing. Boeing’s rate constraint is an awful incumbrance. Even without constraints, Boeing would still be materially behind Airbus because of the lack of a competitive model for the A321neo. These estimates are for one quarter. If we project out for the year, the gap in revenues grows. Boeing cannot produce more than 38 MAX/month—or 456 for the year—if the FAA constraint remains in force. Many of the MAX deliveries this year have been from inventory, not new production. Monthly production appears to be closer to 15—only 40% of what is permitted.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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