Airbus and Boeing have been struggling to raise production since the global pandemic. Airbus faces supply chain issues that prevent it from producing gliders without engines, while Boeing is improving both quality and supply chain constraints. Each company is navigating tariff and trade issues, which remain in flux, while ramping up production. Unfortunately, it looks as if problems will continue into 2027 with the supply chain that will restrict the capability of the duopoly to deliver airplanes as planned. Airbus has an aggressive schedule of under 840 aircraft deliveries in 2025 for its guidance. Boeing has a more modest goal of 570 as it continues to recover from its manufacturing quality issues, with 737 MAX production constrained by the FAA. Boeing is, however, making progress with its quality, measured by six key performance indicators, and expects to receive FAA clearance to increase the rate from a maximum of 38 to 42 per month before year-end. The company is currently producing at a rate of about 32. Seasonality in Production Historically, deliveries have been seasonal, with the final push at year-end quite noticeable for both players. This is particularly true for Airbus, which has delivered more than 100 aircraft in a month six times to Boeing’s once. But Boeing has a consistent history of strong deliveries for years with its 737 program and has delivered well above its current targets historically. So, at this point, which company appears to face more risk? The answer is Airbus, because supply chain problems don’t seem to be going away. Their current problem is engines for the A320 family. Airbus must deliver an average of 80 aircraft per month for the next eight months. They are well below that pace this year, and face the traditional August production slump when Europeans typically take their summer holiday. Averaging 80 is daunting, and while Airbus could deliver more than 100 aircraft per month, this has only been done during December when they are pushing to close transactions by year-end. Delivery Analysis The following chart shows Airbus' delivery history over the last 15 full years plus 2025 to date. The key element to examine is the company's progress toward its goals for the year, which is shown in the 2025 variance row. This analysis, comparing the percentage of historic deliveries with historical monthly seasonality, shows Airbus has fallen behind target early in the year and is currently down 4.1% from where they need to be. The trend of increasingly falling behind does not instill confidence. The months highlighted in yellow indicate that Airbus has exceeded the average of 80 aircraft required per month for the remainder of the year; it needs to match guidance historically. [caption id="attachment_91238" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: AirInsight[/caption] Boeing is facing a smaller task concerning deliveries and appears to have turned around its manufacturing quality to increase its productivity. A similar chart for Boeing shows its delivery history. Boeing has taken major hits from the MAX crashes, the global pandemic, quality problems, and the door plug incident. While the company is still recovering, it appears to be on track historically with deliveries needed to meet its target. Boeing still has a few airplanes in inventory that can act as a buffer if production doesn’t meet targets, but the company appears to be producing the MAX at a rate of around 32 per month, with plans to increase to 38 and 42 by year-end. [caption id="attachment_91239" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: AirInsight[/caption] Boeing is selling down the last of its MAX inventory and should have only the built but uncertified -7 and -10 airplanes in inventory by year-end. While Boeing has some undelivered 787s on its ramp, they have likely been paid for as they await Buyer-Furnished Equipment, seats being the primary supply chain constraint. Boeing has quite frequently delivered more than the target of 49.4 airplanes per month, as shown by the months highlighted in yellow. It can meet its goals if quality targets are met. The Boeing 2025 variance shows that the company is virtually on target in terms of deliveries at the end of April. This gives us confidence that the company has righted itself with respect to quality problems and will slowly and measurably return to higher production rates. At this point, meeting guidance seems more likely for Boeing than Airbus. The Bottom Line Over the last 15 years, Airbus has exceeded its goal of 80 aircraft per month only 7.2% of the time. Boeing has exceeded its goal of 50 aircraft per month 45.5% of the time and has strong experience building at that level in the past. Boeing's turnaround is having an effect, and it now appears to us that Boeing has a higher likelihood of meeting its guidance than Airbus for 2025.
