Based on Boeing's data update, here's our updated model. Things are looking better each month. Notes: Boeing delivered 57 aircraft in August, including 42 MAXs and nine 787s These are outstanding numbers and support our much more bullish view on Boeing Looking forward, there has to be a focus on production rate - when will the FAA relent on a bump from 38? We bet that November will see the rate at 42. Boeing looks like it could easily get there; the holdup is the FAA Boeing reports 26 orders for August, culminating in 609 orders YTD However, August reported orders exclude three orders by Korean Air, Macquarie AirFinance, and WestJet The Korean Air order adds 63 aircraft to the airline's order of 40 aircraft in March Macquarie AirFinance order includes 30 additional 737-8s WestJet ordered 60 7337-10s and seven 787-9s. This order is the largest ever for WestJet and includes an option for 25 additional 737-10s. In summary, Boeing is humming sooner than most expected. The crucial issue is that operators and lessors noticed this early and made bets with more Boeing deals. Yesterday, news broke that the St. Louis strike is also possibly over. As is our MO, here's data to back up our growing confidence in the turnaround at Boeing. Orders are great, but deliveries are facts. We define a delivery as completed when the customer takes the airline home. There are "contractual deliveries" that don't leave the FAL. We count "factual deliveries". [caption id="attachment_107415" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The kicker is that Boeing, as of the end of August, delivered (by our count) 380 airplanes compared to 350 in all of 2024. Using Boeing's numbers, August YTD shows 385 deliveries compared to 348 for 2024. There are four months to go, so 2025 might be a (relative) blowout year at Boeing.