With the July data published, we have updated our models. The most important metric: Boeing delivered 48 aircraft in July, up 12% YoY and up 51% on a YTD basis. Notes: 37 MAXs were delivered. Interestingly, fewer of these deliveries are aging inventory to Chinese customers. MAX deliveries were 12 lower than June, primarily due to higher inventory clearing last month. Boeing has again hit 38/month production, and we remain of the view that the FAA could increase the rate to 42 by year's end. RBC states: "We believe Boeing remains on pace to deliver near our estimates of 441 MAX and 75 787 aircraft for 2025. The data and evidence suggest this is reasonable. 787 is also seeing better delivery rates. July orders were for 30 MAXs and one 787-8, both from unidentified customers. Other Metrics Besides the data Boeing published, it is crucial to see these numbers in context. We have been critical of Boeing, much of which the company has not appreciated. However, the data drives our views, and the data shows a significant change is underway. Colleagues have suggested that we are getting ahead of the news. But when the data shows these signals, Boeing deserves to be complimented. Boeing has earned this. The curve shows the numbers for 2025 through this morning. The bumps are from moving the aging inventory, and the trend will continue to decline as these MAXs are delivered. For comparison, Airbus single-aisles are around 30 days. So Boeing is moving right on to the industry standard. This is excellent news for Boeing, but even better news for customers and the supply chain. [caption id="attachment_100698" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] This table shows the YTD average delivery days. The highlighted row is essentially China and India. China has delayed deliveries, but these are now moving again. The latest is a MAX 8 for Hainan, newly built and delivered 45 days after first flight. The red arrow points to North American customers who are taking new builds rather than inventory. Despite some bumps, the periods are shortening and hover below 30. This is the largest MAX market, and the numbers look great. [caption id="attachment_100699" align="aligncenter" width="819"] AirInsight[/caption] Conclusion While some might be unhappy with July's numbers, we think Boeing has refound its mojo. They are not out of the woods, and another MAX issue would be awful. But if the current state becomes the new normal, Boeing is recovering well and fast. The company is building its case for a rate increase. Also, it has now flown its fifth 777-9, a program that also seems to be settling down.
