C919 Fuel Burn Lags A320neo and MAX 8 |

The latest Skailark data through 2Q25 has been published and reveals evolving fuel burn numbers. The big surprise is the C919. There is a fascinating history surrounding the C919; more information on this story can be found here. The thing is, regardless of the C919's origins and its A320-lookalike appearance, the airplane exists. It has a backlog of 989. That looks good, until you realize that only 16 have been delivered since the EIS in 2023. The program started in 2008. COMAC has been trying to build faster, but without success. The following chart illustrates how COMAC has refined and improved its industrial processes for the C919 compared to the C909. [caption id="attachment_92095" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] The ideal curve shows a steady decline over time, like the C919's. The C909 curve reflects odd patterns and suggests the program is not maturing as it should by now. Fuel Burn The following chart displays fuel burn trends from 2023 through 2Q25. The sparklines show the trend over the period. The red dot highlights the high point. [caption id="attachment_92097" align="aligncenter" width="703"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] The data indicate that the A321neo is the most fuel-efficient single-aisle aircraft, followed by the MAX 8 and MAX 9. Readers will recall that the MAX 9 is the best performer among U.S. operators. Why the difference? Outside the US, MAX 8 numbers are driven by Ryanair and its family of airlines, using the MAX 8-200. Because the ASM metric is influenced by seat capacity, the 200-seater MAX 8 shows significantly better fuel burn. Only Allegiant uses this model in the US and has only a handful in service. Some other interesting items: The E195-E2 is doing slightly better than the A220-300. The A220-300, similar in capacity to the A319neo, eclipses that model. The C919 Now, let's focus on the C919. It uses the same engines as those found on the A320neo and MAX 8. These three models compete directly. The MAX 8 has 28% better fuel burn. The A320neo delivers 20% better fuel burn. The difference is stark and far more than we expected. The recent US-China trade dispute has accelerated China's determination to develop a domestic engine. This may appear beneficial, but bear in mind that this engine is expected to deliver a fuel burn comparable to that of the CFM56. That would be over 16% worse than the LEAP engine on the C919 now. The C919's fuel burn with the CJ-1000A would be significantly worse than it is now. How are the three competing models being deployed? It seems pretty different. [caption id="attachment_92098" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Although the C919 fleet is small compared to its competitive set, initial confidence has declined. Stage lengths have shrunk and are likely to remain lower than those of the competition. The following chart illustrates the relatively small size of the C919 fleet. The ball size reflects ASMs. [caption id="attachment_92099" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Outlook COMAC has big ambitions for the C919. They want to deliver 30 aircraft this year while producing 50. The goal is to produce 100 per year in 2026, 150 per year in 2028, and 200 per year in 2029. These are, in our view, insurmountable targets. Even if China's airlines are forced to acquire the C919s on order, the aircraft's uncompetitive fuel burn makes it unattractive. China's airlines would be better off acquiring A320neo and MAX 8s. Indeed, many of the MAX 8s in inventory were destined initially for Chinese airlines, and these are now being delivered. COMAC must focus on improving the C919's economics and do so quickly. The duopoly is closely monitoring the Chinese market. Unlike COMAC, the duopoly has the burgeoning Indian market to exploit. Airbus and Boeing keep each other on their toes. COMAC is not yet ready for this level of competition and is unlikely to be for at least a decade.

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