Embraer, in advance of the Paris Air Show next week, has released its 2025 Market Outlook. Embraer projects a need for 10,500 new aircraft in the up to 150-seat market over the next 20 years. Of those aircraft, Embraer projects 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops during that time period.  This is down from 11,000 aircraft projected in its 2023 market outlook.
Arjan Meijer, Embraer’s President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, stated “Our 2025 market outlook explores how air transport is evolving and how airlines can respond with more flexible and resilient fleet strategies. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrow-bodies are essential for long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”
Regional Markets
The Embraer forecast encompasses 7 distinct markets, Africa, Asia Pacific, China, Europe-CIS, Latin America, Middle East, and North America. Â Each of these markets are analyzed and regional trends explored. Â The global cargo market is also considered in the outlook, including the continued high demand and move from shortage to over-supply. Â Embraer sees an opportunity for smaller freighters and P2F cargo conversions of early EJets.
For jets, the largest market is North America, accounting for 2,680 aircraft, followed by Europe and the CIS with 1,990 aircraft. The North American market will continue as the largest market for regional aircraft, including the E175 as well as E195-E2 and A220-300. Â
For turboprops, the largest market is Asia Pacific, which will account for 640 of the 1,780 turboprops. North America, with 220 aircraft, is forecast to be the second largest turboprop sector.
Key Market Trends
Embraer featured three key industry trends in its forecast. The first is the evolution of connectivity in a fragmented world. The second is developing smaller markets – the new path for future tourism. The third is growing through capacity discipline – achieving long-term sustainable profitability.  Each of those have interesting implications for the airline and aircraft industries.
The Bottom Line
The up to 150 seat market is dominated by Airbus A220 and Embraer E2s in the jet market, and ATR in the turboprop market. Â There appears to be enough demand for the three competitors to all enjoy success in their respective market niches.
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