hangover
The period between December and January might be named the “Three Hs”. There’s Hell weeks, then Holiday, and then in January, “Hangover”. Here’s a fun way to welcome back our industry readers.
Let’s start with Hell weeks, the weeks in December. This is the month when every effort is made to meet, and ideally, exceed targets. The pressure is tough.
Consider that the average monthly rates for these OEMs are usually half or less than the numbers you see in the table. For example, Airbus might be closer to 65 in a great month. Boeing might be around 47 in a great month. Clearly, the squeeze is on in December. It must be Hell.
Then comes December 24, and the FALs shut down. The following chart shows how the pace of industry first flights slows as the holidays approach. This period becomes the second H-holidays. 2025 saw a shutdown on the 24th.
Then comes the third H – hangover. After the holidays come to an end, it’s always too soon. January is a tough month. With the largest and most productive FALs in the northern hemisphere, it’s also winter. Who feels like work?
Anyway, HoHo, HiHo, it’s off to work we go!
For those of us who track, analyze, and report on this industry, we’re with you on the journey into 2026. Here’s wishing you all success as you climb towards that higher target this year. We’re cheering for all of you.
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