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China was seen as a great market of promise.  Many probably still think this is inevitable just because of the sheer population numbers.  Also, there was the amazing record of ever-rising traffic – truly aviation’s Promised Land.

Well hello, reality. Very few things go up forever.

No matter how you spin and twist the trends don’t look promising.  Consider the western air travel recovery, which is more like a fresh new oil well blowout.  Messy, very messy.  While the western Covid public policy was terrible more than not, there has clearly been a recovery. 

So while Airbus is thrilled to announce a blockbuster order before the big show in 10 days’ time, take it easy.  The current aircraft in China have not reached optimal usage and there is no pressing need for new aircraft.  As always with China, it’s a bit of optics.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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