The Paris Rumor Mill is Already Churning

Before the Paris Air Show, the industry rumor mill often kicks into high gear.  As OEMs and airlines often use the air show to highlight orders, many reporters are looking to break news and discover who is going to order which aircraft in advance.  Our focus is a bit different, as we like to focus on the implications and answer the question “so what?”

Here’s an example of the early rumor mill  

The Paris Air Show rumor mill has Riyadh Air ordering 50 additional wide-body aircraft, with the Airbus A350-1000 edging out the long-delayed Boeing 777-9.  Airbus has already repainted one of its A321XLR test aircraft in the Riyadh Air livery.  This comes after last year’s order for 60 of the extended range narrow-bodies.  

That is likely a tell that something else will happen at the show between the parties. Since Riyadh Air is expected to place a large wide-body order to supplement its 787s with aircraft of higher capacity, the A350-1000 is the logical candidate. 

Rolls-Royce recently announced the first delivery of an A350 with the Trent XWB84 EP, or enhanced performance, engines.   This continuous improvement upgrade adds a 1% plus benefit to fuel burn while maintaining strong durability.  That extra performance may have been a factor in a very close competition between the 777X and A350-1000.  The delay in certification of the 777-9 may have also a factor in the decision process.

Other industry rumors range from a 100 aircraft A220 order for Air Asia to the selection of Greensboro as the manufacturing site for JetZero.  Whether those rumors are accurate will likely be determined next week.

Speculation on orders is just another element of the pre-air show atmosphere

Embraer has already scheduled Paris Air Show press conferences for Monday to announce a commercial order, and Tuesday to announce a military order, with another for Wednesday that is currently unspecified.  That is an indication that at least two deals have been finalized for announcement at the show.  Now the question is who placed the order, and how large it will be.

Embraer is looking at expanding its market for the E2 series, and is offering the E2 in India, where it just opened a satellite office.  Could the E2 penetrate the fast-growing Indian market, and offer availability of a “right-sized” aircraft faster than Airbus or Boeing could offer delivery?  Will the next C390 customer be another NATO country, or will Embraer win a major military order from the Middle East?  We will find out next week. Remember, curiosity killed the cat.

Rumors often don’t tell the full story.

Another rumor is that additional delays to Boeing 787 deliveries to Lufthansa will result in the airline not retiring the A340-600 series aircraft until 2026.  But the delays are the result of delays in the certification of Lufthansa’s Allegris business class seats, which continue to plague the carrier.  This is clearly not a Boeing delay, but one that results from buyer furnished equipment.  

Of course, those counting aircraft sitting at the Boeing factory may report high inventory levels, but they may or may not still be on Boeing’s books, as a lack of BFE is likely covered in customer contracts. If installation of seats is all that needs to be done, Boeing and Lufthansa will likely have agreed to pay Boeing for the aircraft, with the exception of that task, some time ago.  Rumors can often be misleading.

Stay tuned for Paris Air Show coverage

While it is always fun to speculate, we will soon know what will happen next week in Paris.  AirInsight will be on-site and we will be reporting the news, and implications thereof, as it breaks next week.  

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Ernest Arvai

President AirInsight Group LLC

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