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July 22, 2024

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Turkish Airlines and AerCap agreed to a lease of ten A321neos.  The deal follows news from last December when the airline unveiled a deal with  Airbus for 220 aircraft.  That order included 150 A321neos.

Market demand for the A321neo family remains inelastic.

Yesterday’s June orders and deliveries Airbus report confirmed that over 90% of the OEM’s A320neo family orders YTD are for the A321.  The following chart from our Airbus O&D model illustrates this inelastic demand.

AirInsight

We regularly report on the market’s ongoing upsizing and the swing to the MoM segment.  Looking at this segment over the past few years, we can see how Boeing stumbled by not offering an appropriate 757 replacement.

AirInsight

This next chart (2024 YTD) makes key points:  the duopoly is out of balance, the duopoly’s Achilles heel is the single-aisle MoM segment, and Boeing does not have the MAX 10 ready.

AirInsight

Looking at recent delivery rates, we see this chart.

AirInsight

Returning to yesterday’s Airbus monthly update, 36 undisclosed A321neo orders were added. Every airline wants this model—not because it’s the best option, but because it’s the only option.

Even United Airlines, one of Boeing’s most loyal customers and part of Boeing’s DNA, plunged into the A321neo pool.  With each new A321neo delivery, United appears to be retiring an A320ceo, upsizing and updating, with zero pilot training costs.  United’s MAX 10 deliveries may be sliding into 2026.  By then, United could have over 50 A321neos.

The US was always the largest and earliest single-aisle MOM market.  The trends speak for themselves.

AirInsight
author avatar
Addison Schonland
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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