Airbus Deliveries Slow in August 2025 as Boeing Gains

August 2025 looks like it will be a slow month at Airbus. Is it slower than usual? Yes. Take a look at the chart. The chart is updated through 19th August. The red arrow highlights August 2025. Over the past two years, Airbus has delivered ~50 aircraft. There are about ten days to go, and Airbus needs to deliver 23 by the month's end to reach 50. Airbus 2025 Deliveries are soft As the chart points out, 2025 is looking like a slower year overall. Only March saw an improvement over last year. Every other month is down. [caption id="attachment_101737" align="aligncenter" width="828"] AirInsight[/caption] The 2025 trend raises questions about the 820 target. With each passing month, that target looks like a steeper hurdle. The following chart shows how Airbus typically backloads deliveries. This year is no different; Airbus told the market the same thing is happening this year. [caption id="attachment_101739" align="aligncenter" width="744"] AirInsight[/caption] August is vacation month, and this is taken more seriously in Europe than in North America. Airbus needs to deliver ~89 aircraft per month to hit its 2025 target. "Losing" August makes it a more demanding task. The chart above shows that the 2025 trend is softer than in previous years. We have noted before that we would not be surprised at a target adjustment in September. And Boeing? After all, August happens in North America, too. The chart below shows that August is soft at Boeing as well. Last August, Boeing delivered 40 aircraft, and it is currently at 25. Another 156 should be easy because Boeing has an inventory to draw down. This inventory has engines, a challenge Airbus has identified as its big challenge. Boeing's primary challenge is delivering the MAX inventory, which is a lower hurdle than what Airbus faces. [caption id="attachment_101738" align="aligncenter" width="827"] AirInsight[/caption] What does the yearly trend look like for Boeing? It's 2025, looks great compared to previous years. The past several years have been awful. But Boeing is coming through its challenges and appears to have a strong delivery growth curve. Beating August 2024 should be readily achieved. Boeing has not publicly declared a formal delivery target for 2025. Based on the data available through mid-year, Forecast International estimates that, with around 280 aircraft delivered in the first half, a year-end projection of 588 deliveries is a reasonable baseline. And following Boeing’s second-quarter results, which showed improved deliveries and cash flow, Wall Street expects around 580 deliveries for 2025. Currently at 385, Boeing needs to deliver ~39 per month to reach 580. [caption id="attachment_101740" align="aligncenter" width="746"] AirInsight[/caption] Unlike Airbus, Boeing has strong military programs like the KC-46 and the industry's strongest freighter pipeline. These two programs helped keep Boeing afloat when its MAXs and 787s saw delayed deliveries. 2025 looks like it will be Boeing's best year in a long time.

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