Airbus A350 and A400
The June numbers are out, and it was a big month for deliveries, with 89.
This is a surprise because their deliveries have been running behind target for months. We are not alone in being concerned about this. Bank of America said this morning: “As a result, we raise our FY26 delivery forecast back to 870 aircraft, in line with company guidance, from 860 previously.” BofA is confident. We’re not so sure.
Here’s our four-page Duopoly Tracker. Boeing data is not updated through June yet.
Orders
Orders are plans and signal the market. The signal is consistent – the market wants A321s. The SAS A330-900 order is a boost to the program. Notice the A330-800 order – only one, but that’s the start of the new MRTT program. Many have asked why Airbus keeps that model on offer when so few airlines have bought it. Now you see why.
Deliveries
If orders are plans, deliveries are facts. The A220-100 program continues to look anemic, but stays because of the ACJ. The same applies to the A319. The A220-300 should be delivering faster because that program is now becoming very important.
Notice the relative weakness in A330-900 deliveries. Now it is clear why that SAS deal is so important. This model should be selling like hot cakes because the A330ceo was such a great seller. However, so much of the A330-300 fleet remains well inside its lifecycle that replacements are slow in coming.
The A350-900 is moving along slowly too. Cabin monuments are the pacing item. Notice the program has good order pacing.
The A350-1000 program becomes ever more important as Boeing’s 777-9 nears certification. This A350 model is the foundation to compete, and it has found several big-name customers. Some, like Air Canada, switched away from 777 to A350. It would be good to see deliveries accelerate. The supply chain is the constraint.
Bottom Line
From our perspective, the critical path to 870 must be closely monitored. The supply chain remains strained – it’s not just about engines.
Airbus needs to deliver 515 aircraft to hit 870. That’s 86.5 per month from July. August is a bust for them because of the summer holidays. Assume deliveries in August drop to half of what’s needed, then we’re at 93.6 per month to hit the target. PER MONTH. How are they going to do it?
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