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Airbus had a great month. Its best this year.
Orders
The long-awaited A220 order from AirAsia came through. It cost Airbus that airline’s A330neo orders, though. Given AirAsia’s fickle order history, here’s hoping Airbus priced the deal accordingly. China accounted for another 137. So much for the COMAC ‘threat‘. With 379 orders, it was a great month. The other side of that growing order book brings us to the more pressing item, execution.
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This is the tougher part, delivering on that huge backlog. 81 deliveries for the month are excellent, and Airbus needs to maintain this rate to meet 870 for the year. Don’t bet on it yet. Consider that YTD deliveries total 262, with May accounting for 31%; that should give us all pause. If history is any guide, this year’s last quarter will be the most pressured. Remember, Europe goes on vacation in August, effectively taking that month out of the calendar. Airbus has never solved the August problem — it is baked into the delivery calendar every year, and every year, analysts underweight it. Unless Airbus can persuade its FALs to keep up the pace. As we stated, don’t bet on it.
Model
Click the double-headed arrow at the bottom right to optimize viewing on your monitor. Note Boeing’s May numbers haven’t been added yet.
Bottom Line
Airbus has to suffer through political shenanigans from the EU. The recent spat with CAAC, holding Airbus deliveries hostage to get an EASA certification team in PVG, is an example of China (CAAC) figuring it could force the EU to bend. And it worked. China rolled the dice and won. The Airbus card is now in play for all future pressure on the EU from China.
Boeing is not immune, and China has tried the same thing with the US. The recent orders from China were the first in a long time.
All this reflects the strength of the duopoly, not its weakness.
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