Airbus orders & deliveries

Care to share?

Here’s the updated model.

Notes:

30 deliveries, so off to a genteel start after the blowout December
Although the supply chain

is still stressed, we believe more suppliers are trying to move to supplying Airbus, given the MAX debacle. This helps Airbus.
Analysts talk of over 800 deliveries this year at 11% better than 2023. If Airbus can attract more supply chain capacity, this number could be on the low aise. Even 820 could be more realistic.
Regarding the GTF challenge, P&W was conservative in its estimates, and the number of aircraft being worked on is lower than projected. Moreover, repairs seem to be occurring at a good clip. P&W and CFM should deliver engines at the rate Airbus needs for 2024.
A thought on widebodies – Airbus benefits from the slow 787 delivery recovery and the 777X delays. Annoyance at key customers like Emirates might see a switch to more A350s. Particularly the A350-1000, as we see at Delta. Then there’s that old United order for A350s that might rise again, given that airline’s annoyance at Boeing.