Boeing Gains Momentum as Airbus Activity Slows

As we approach the month's end, here's a quick take on our Duopoly tracking. Airbus Something feels "off". Take a look at this table for the first flights in 2025. We highlight three data points for consideration. [caption id="attachment_125109" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Here's our detail for October to date. We might be missing data, but we check it daily across multiple sources. Oddly, Airbus has had no "first flights" from any of its FALs in several days. There might be a spurt in the next few days. We're watching this. If our data is accurate, then something is off. [caption id="attachment_125110" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] You cannot deliver what isn't test flown. Here are the deliveries for October. This activity shows more consistency. [caption id="attachment_125111" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] We don't have any answers yet. But the question must be asked. Boeing Boeing has been through a torrid few years, and 2025 appears to be a year of full recovery. The chart below shows that there have been first flights nearly every day. The key to this recovery is Renton and the MAX program. The chart shows that MAX activity is high all month. [caption id="attachment_125112" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Regarding deliveries, Boeing has two sources. The new builds are coming off the line, and the dwindling inventory. The chart shows nearly daily deliveries. [caption id="attachment_125113" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The chart above is supported by the following table for context. The two highlighted numbers are for much delayed China deliveries. These are inventory deliveries. Notice the pattern in the other MAX deliveries. [caption id="attachment_125114" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] To further highlight the MAX delivery improvement, take a look at the following chart. Boeing has been working feverishly to deliver inventory, but it takes time and patience. They are getting there slowly but surely. [caption id="attachment_125115" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Conclusion Whereas Airbus appears to be missing six days in October for first flights, Boeing is missing three. Airbus has "only" experienced supply chain disruptions. Boeing has those, too, but the additional challenge is running down inventory amid an unhelpful tariff regime. A stronger Boeing helps Airbus by creating momentum in the supply chain. Currently, it appears Boeing is benefiting more from this than Airbus. Here's another perspective you should look at. While this is for 1H25, and ours is October-focused, the insights are helpful.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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