Airbus, Boeing, COMAC, Embraer 3Q25 Delivery Update

It's October 1, 2025, and we have the counts for deliveries through September in hand. The final quarter of the year, and how is it looking? Our free model is here. For subscribers, here are the details we want to focus on. You can also see the model below. Airbus 73 first flights in September, compared to 56 in August. The vacation is clearly over, and everyone's back at it at full speed. 68 deliveries compared to 56 last month. The FALs are hustling, but the key question is: Is the 820 target still feasible? 484 deliveries YTD by our count. As a reminder, our count never matches the OEM's because we count a delivery when the airplane goes to its new home. That said, by our count, Airbus must deliver 112 per month over the next quarter. Can you see it? Not us, and we've been saying this for months now. See the following chart. Airbus is, by our count, at 59.3% of its delivery target. [caption id="attachment_114163" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing 49 first flights compared to 48 last month. Yes, Boeing is working from a lower point than Airbus, but its numbers are increasing consistently. We remain cautiously bullish. As another data point, Boeing is at 72.4% of our production target for the year compared to Airbus at 70.7%. 49 deliveries compared to 59 last month. But within this, MAX is steady at 37 for both months. 787s were slower. However, we note that today, October 1, TAAG took delivery of a 787-9 that was formerly sold to TUI. Juggling inventory continues. 420 deliveries YTD is a considerable improvement over last year. One of the key metrics we use to track Boeing's improved production processes is the number of days it takes to deliver from first flight. The following table provides this for the YTD numbers. [caption id="attachment_114164" align="aligncenter" width="451"] AirInsight[/caption] One delayed delivery, like the TAAG 787-9 mentioned above, throws off the monthly number. This is the reason we see MAX 8 numbers at such high levels - the parked and now being delivered Chinese airplanes throw off the numbers. The 15 days in October cover one MAX 8-200 for Ryanair. Boeing is doing much better this year. The improvements get hidden by the outliers. COMAC Transparency is a challenge. We track 25 first flights YTD compared to 34 last year. Could COMAC beat the previous year's number? Probably, but this OEM is not operating anywhere near its promise. 21 deliveries YTD compared to 48 last year. With one quarter to go, we don't see last year's number being topped. COMAC has already walked back its annual target. The following chart indicates that COMAC is improving. But the process is painfully slow. No wonder China's airlines continue to buy from the duopoly. State "guidance" can't change reality. [caption id="attachment_114165" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] EMBRAER This OEM is also not as transparent as it could be. It changes the HEX numbers for each test flight, making it difficult to determine the actual first flights. Consequently, we cannot provide any reliable data on first flights. We count 36 deliveries YTD compared to last year's full-year count of 74. Embraer is having a great year in terms of orders. However, deliveries appear to be lower than they could be. As the backlog builds, Embraer must raise its delivery rates. The chart lists the first flights we have managed to track, which we use to estimate production rates and average delivery days. There are signs of increasing rates and shorter days. But Embraer refuses to make this more transparent, which invites more questions about its industrial processes. [caption id="attachment_114180" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Our Tracking Model

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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