Boeing Wants 70 MAXs Per Month. Who Believes It?

TAC reports Boeing plans to accelerate MAX production. The need for this is obvious; Boeing must catch up with Airbus for the sake of the entire supply chain, not just its nervous shareholders. But producing 70/month? Let's take a look at the record. Here we see MAX first flights (a production proxy). The greens are higher rates, and the pinks are lower rates. The picture you see here is not what you see for Airbus single-aisles, we can assure you. Boeing's MAX program has become one of the most disrupted commercial aircraft programs of the modern era. [caption id="attachment_192539" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The highest rate Boeing achieved over the period is 40 in July last year. That number is 43% lower than the 70 being evaluated. By this record, even 63 per month is far away. Boeing could make the case that these targets are indeed achievable because it is adding a line at Everett (North Line). The table above lists Renton's production. The FAA's rate limits are program-specific, not FAL-specific. It's not clear yet what Everett's line capacity will be. If Everett ultimately proves as productive as Renton, Boeing could theoretically produce 40 aircraft per month from each site. On paper, that gets Boeing to 80 aircraft per month. Everett is a straight line, whereas Renton's is a U-turn line. So Everett may be even faster. It appears that if the supply chain can take the stress, Boeing could indeed target 70/month. The challenge isn't Boeing's capacity. The market is anxious for new aircraft, so demand is not a challenge either. OEM Rate Targets One of the greatest challenges in the commercial aviation market is trusting OEM targets. To date, they have been unreliable. Supplier contracts are written to protect the OEM, while the vendor is often a much smaller company taking on significant risk. We call this the 'kiss of death' - it's great to be kissed, but it can kill you. Vendors must take capital investments to meet the new rate, mythical as it may be. They have to find the cash, machinery, and skilled people. And what happens when that rate isn't met? Which brings us to Boeing's real challenge. It isn't setting a target of 70 per month. It's convincing the supply chain that the target is credible. The biggest challenge is making everyone in the supply chain believe them. As TAC points out, "The real test lies ahead.' Boeing's MAX track record does not engender the same confidence as Airbus' A321 does. Playing Banker Put yourself in the role of a banker for a moment. Across the table sits a Boeing supplier seeking financing to increase production capacity by 75%. The business case depends on Boeing achieving rates it has never sustained and maintaining them for years. Do you approve the loan? That may be the most important question in commercial aviation today. Boeing can announce 70 MAXs per month. Investors may applaud. Airlines may cheer. But suppliers must commit real capital long before the first aircraft rolls off the line. The challenge is not setting the target. The challenge is credibility. Airbus has spent years proving it can steadily raise production rates. Boeing is still rebuilding that trust. Until suppliers, lenders, and investors believe the ramp is real, 70 aircraft per month is not a production rate. It is a forecast.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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