Fuel burn among North American 737 MAX operators

Are 737 MAX operators benefitting equally from the MAX's fuel efficiency? Short answer: No. Using Skailark's data, we offer two charts illustrating this. MAX 8 This model is the family workhorse. It is by far the most popular model ordered, following the 737-800NG, which was also the most popular model then. The optimal quadrant is the bottom right. Here, we have low fuel burn and efficient stage length. The upper left quadrant is the worst for the opposite reasons. [caption id="attachment_90171" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Allegiant took delivery of its first MAX 8-200 in 2024 and is the only airline in the "bad" quadrant. It won't be there long, and we expect to see it in the best quadrant in 2025. The key metric among MAX 8 operators is the operating stages. Every operator achieves excellent fuel burn. Southwest, AeroMexico, Flair, and American operate at stages below average. Southwest is the world's largest MAX operator and is not accessing the same benefits in terms of fuel burn because of its shorter stages. The ball size reflects the number of flights. Southwest is impacted more than the other suboptimal operators. The chart confirms what we hear from the airline about the frustration with Boeing. They need the MAX 7 as the MAX 8 is proving too large for several markets where it is being deployed. MAX 9 The logic above applies to this chart above, too. [caption id="attachment_90172" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] The MAX 9 is the most efficient model in the family. Its fuel burn enables Alaska to compete effectively against the big four. Because Alaska exploits the MAX9's range, it achieves better fuel efficiency than the much larger United. Over time, this advantage compounds. This compound advantage will make Alaska a stronger competitor. Moreover, as Alaska standardizes on the MAX 9, in combination with its large fleet of 737-900s, the airline has become a majority middle-of-market airline. This is significant because it enables Alaska to drive down its ASM costs. Since chasing the lowest seat costs is fundamental for airline success, Alaska is clearly on the path to success. Context Context is crucial; we offer this when we publish charts and analyses. Using the same data source, here is a table of fuel burn among North American airlines. Note the NG and MAX models show substantial improvement in fuel burn from the newer models. [caption id="attachment_90174" align="aligncenter" width="496"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Although the MAX has a rough history, it is a highly fuel-efficient aircraft. With ~45% of operating costs coming from fuel burn, its popularity is easy to understand. The data suggest that the MAX delivers better than the promised 16% improved fuel burn in operational use. Operators who are not deriving the optimal benefit from the MAX's fuel-efficient capabilities are using the aircraft sub-optimally. In Southwest's case, this may be due to fleet constraints. However, other operators might want to stretch their MAXs to squeeze more value out of their fleet.

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