A new month and an opportunity to look back.  What do we see for new delivery estimates through October 2022? Here are some notes from our delivery tracker. Official OEM numbers will be published around the 10th of November.

  1. The duopoly remains out of balance.  This is a concern for the entire commercial aviation sector.
    1. Airbus is out delivering Boeing by 1.3 to 1 and Airbus has hardly any freighter business
    2. YTD Airbus has a 53.3% delivery market share to Boeing’s 39.3%
  2. This is despite the top delivery customers for Boeing being Southwest, Ryanair, Alaska, and United, respectively
  3. The most delivered new aircraft are MAX8 (216), A321neo (193), A320neo (159), and MAX9 (45) – 33 new MAX8-200s have been delivered through YTD October
    1. The disparity between Airbus and Boeing is writ large – Boeing needs the MAX10 ASAP
    2. The threat of cancellation is a double-edged sword for Boeing – Boeing needs the MAX10 and cancellation weakens the MAX family where it needs the most support
  4. In terms of twin aisles, Airbus delivered 40 A350-900s, 8 A350-1000s, 16 A330-900s, and 2 A330-800s.  Boeing delivered 19 777Fs, 13 767Fs, 11 787-8s, 4 747Fs 3 777s, 2 787-10s and one 787-9
    1. Airbus is coming to the freight business late. The freighter (and military) business has been a savior for Boeing.
  5. Embraer remains primarily a regional-focused OEM. It delivered three times as many E-175s and E2s.
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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