1H25 Duopoly Delivery Trends expose challenges

The numbers through June are now settled, and here's our estimate of the score. As you will see in the notes, there are some background stories with some of these deliveries. You can track our public daily tracker here. This source offers a rich insight into industry trends, including those related to inventory and engines. [caption id="attachment_91877" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Airbus There are 291 deliveries through June. The target is 820, which means that at month-end, Airbus is at 35.5% of the annual target. This means the 2H25 requires an average of 88.2 deliveries per month. Can you see this happening? Not us, and we expect a revised number in early 4Q25. The supply chain isn't able to handle this target, as we have learned from several sources. Even with the usual backload, 88 per month is unrealistic. Airbus hit 70 in March, and then deliveries declined. It appears that Airbus may reach a monthly rate of 60 for deliveries, but issues with engines and cabin fixtures are hindering its goals. Then there's Airbus labor, which is getting restless. Another clue is the average number of delivery days. There are tell-tale signs of supply chain throttling back deliveries. The July A350 delivery, which is over 3,000 days old, is a special case of an ex-LATAM airplane that was taken back by Bank of Utah and then delivered to Edelweiss yesterday. The number does not reflect the original delivery days. This is one of the oddballs mentioned above. Boeing The data tells a story of remarkable resilience and recovery. Let's face it, things could not have been worse than they have been for several years. However, the data indicate a turnaround is underway. Deliveries are approximately 90% of Airbus's. That is a vast improvement over last year. While the MAX 8 is Boeing's big mover, Airbus has the A321, and this remains a significant issue. The absence of the MAX 10 is a considerable loss, and obtaining certification for the MAX 7 and 10 is a crucial hurdle that must be overcome ASAP. The average delivery days table tells the story of trial and turmoil. Like Airbus, Boeing is facing supply chain challenges. This is especially true for seats on the 787. However, program delays from other "own goal" issues are readily apparent. The MAX 9 program seems to have found a rhythm. But cutting those days closer to 25 is necessary. MAX 8 days are so high because inventory deliveries still impact. Fortunately, China deliveries are back online, and the Indian exploitation of that situation has come to an end. This means better pricing for Boeing, so an extra win. As the inventory clears out, which could happen this quarter, the average days will drop precipitously. We anticipate it to match the MAX 9. The 787 deliveries reflect program delays and a throttled supply chain. Boeing targets 570 deliveries this year and is at 46% of the target. We see them easily achieving it, possibly even exceeding that target, which is the kind of signal the company would love to send. Outside the Duopoly Embraer continues to hide its first flight data. They do this by effectively changing the hash for each test flight, making ADSB tracking for an aircraft nearly impossible to decipher. They, for some odd reason, think keeping this information secret protects them. It doesn't. It highlights what scares the OEM, and that is the production rate. It's too slow, and as the orderbook grows, it will only make the numbers look worse. The secrecy approach is ineffective. COMAC is another OEM that prefers to remain opaque. The lack of GE engines for its two programs has hindered deliveries, and it remains unclear what production rates will be. Absent engines, there are no first flights to track. No public sources indicate that gliders are at the FAL waiting for engines. But there almost certainly are. If Airbus has them, so does COMAC. Taking pictures at an Airbus FAL is not an invitation to prison, though.

No results