With discussion about a bubble in the single aisle markets and the realization today that even widebody orders are slowing, what conclusions can we draw from fleet data? Clearly it is difficult to see a pattern when looking year by year because fleet decisions are long term plans. We decided to take a longer-term approach and examine how the passenger fleets are evolving in five year increments, starting in 2000.
The chart illustrates that fleet growth has been robust. This is despite 9/11, oil shocks, SARS, ISIS terrorism and other nasty factors that typically have negative impacts. Over the fifteen-year period the passenger fleet grew by just over 88%. These fifteen years represent the equivalent of half the career for a typical aircraft. Is it any wonder why the industry leaders are so confident? The industry has withstood tremendous shocks and kept right on growing.
The confidence is easy to understand. It also explains why the industry is now sitting on a record backlog, despite the slowing aircraft orders across the board. It would seem, reasonably, that the industry growth pattern is well established and robust enough to withstand anything.
