Premium #229 – The Slowly Evolving Fleet

With discussion about a bubble in the single aisle markets and the realization today that even widebody orders are slowing, what conclusions can we draw from fleet data? Clearly it is difficult to see a pattern when looking year by year because fleet decisions are long term plans.  We decided to take a longer-term approach and examine how the passenger fleets are evolving in five year increments, starting in 2000.

The chart illustrates that fleet growth has been robust. This is despite 9/11, oil shocks, SARS, ISIS terrorism and other nasty factors that typically have negative impacts.  Over the fifteen-year period the passenger fleet grew by just over 88%.  These fifteen years represent the equivalent of half the career for a typical aircraft.  Is it any wonder why the industry leaders are so confident?  The industry has withstood tremendous shocks and kept right on growing.