Indian aviation
Twice a year, as seasons change, airlines worldwide revise their schedules — and India is no exception. For the upcoming winter season, Indian carriers plan to operate about 3% more flights than in summer. But a deeper analysis of the data reveals a more nuanced picture of traffic growth, airline strategies, and supply chain constraints.
Indian airlines, according to the regulator, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), have been cleared to operate 26,495 weekly domestic flights from late October — up 3.4% over the summer schedule — across 129 airports in the country. Four new airports have joined the network, while seven have been dropped.
However, this growth is slower than the 5.5% increase seen during the last summer schedule over the preceding winter, suggesting that overall capacity expansion is decelerating.
The slowdown also reflects continuing aircraft delivery delays from Airbus and Boeing, as well as persistent engine supply shortages affecting narrow-body fleets. IndiGo and several other carriers have dozens of grounded aircraft due to Pratt & Whitney engine issues, while delivery timelines for new A320neos and 737 MAX jets have stretched well into 2026. These bottlenecks are limiting the amount of fresh capacity Indian carriers can deploy each season.
Though, as expected, IndiGo, India’s largest airline, will operate the lion’s share of flights — 15,014 weekly services, a 6% increase from summer. This is nearly double the rate of capacity addition seen in the previous schedule, indicating that IndiGo will get a stronger capacity rush in the second half of the year. Its acquisition of A321s is driving this.
In contrast, Air India will operate 4,277 weekly flights, down about 1% from summer, while its subsidiary, Air India Express, will fly 6% fewer. The dip suggests a temporary capacity flattening as both airlines undergo cabin retrofits and fleet refurbishment, ahead of a larger expansion drive expected from next winter.
Akasa Air, Boeing’s newest Indian customer, will also reduce its winter flying by roughly 6%. The airline has not disclosed the reasons, but whether this reduction is due to maintenance schedules or network recalibration is unclear.
The biggest surprise, however, comes from SpiceJet. Despite being financially strained, the airline has filed plans for 1,568 weekly flights — a 25% increase over summer — thanks to 19 wet-leased aircraft it expects to secure by November. The move aims to offset its grounded fleet, but whether this aggressive expansion pays off will only become clear when FY2025–26 financial results are filed.
Meanwhile, Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu has said this month that India can now sustain five major airlines, citing rapid infrastructure growth. “We have not just doubled the number of airports in the last 11 years, we have also doubled passenger traffic,” Naidu said, adding that India is “no longer a small aviation market.”
Nearly 232.8 million passengers flew within India in 2024, an 8% increase year-on-year. See our Indian domestic traffic tracker here.
Still, there is no sign of any new major airline entering the market soon. Growth will therefore be driven by existing players — led by IndiGo, followed by Akasa Air, and possibly SpiceJet if it sustains its wet-lease expansion into summer 2026.
Much of the potential unplanned capacity addition will also hinge on oil prices, which have so far remained benign, helping airlines manage costs amid slower domestic growth. Carriers will also be closely watching the geopolitical standoff between the United States and Russia, hoping that global energy markets remain stable and that 2026 brings another year of steady recovery for aviation.
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