Author Archives: Addison Schonland

Different Assumptions Yield Different Airplanes

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Boeing and Airbus have different assumptions on the future of air travel, which impacts their product lines.  Airbus assumes that growth in aircraft size will continue, and that with increasing congestion at airports, larger aircraft will be needed.  Boeing views route dispersion and the use of smaller cities for point-to-point service, avoiding hubs, as a strong element of the future air travel system.  Both are right, to some degree, but their focus is impacted market positioning. Continue reading →

Lessor A320 Family Engine Orders

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Our last post generated a comment regarding engine selection among leasing firms. It was a great comment because the GE combine provides tremendous power. GECAS is among the largest aircraft leasing worldwide and it is part of the GE empire. CFM, an aero engine maker, is jointly owned by France’s SNECMA and GE.

By policy, GECAS only orders GE/CFM engines on jet aircraft (though on purchase/leasebacks, it will acquire non-GE-powered aircraft).

Among A320s on order, GECAS accounts for one third of CFM powered orders; 31% on  CEO and 35% on NEO.

On the A321, GECAS accounts for 42% of NEO CFM engine orders and to date there have not been and CFM engines ordered for the NEO.

It is interesting to see how close the engine race is when one takes GECAS orders out of the equation.

The Resurgence of the Turboprop in Regional Operations

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We believe that a mix of high speed turboprops and jets in the 70-90 seat sector are the most likely 50-seat regional jet replacements, but we see a resurgence of turboprops taking a larger market share in today’s high fuel cost environment.  Today’s best selling turboprops are in the 70-seat range, and both major manufacturers are examining 90 seat turboprops to support regional markets in the future. Continue reading →

Aging Airplanes

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Over the past two years we have seen a remarkable surge in orders for single aisle airplanes. Much of this has been driven by fuel prices. But there has also been an issue bubbling under – airplanes in many fleets are getting older.

Pat Duggins (http://www.patduggins.com/) is an expert on aging airplanes and spent some time explaining the issues. You might be surprised what you learn from this.

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Mitsubishi’s MRJ Delay Explained

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We had an opportunity to have a sidebar with Yugo Fukuhara, Director, Marketing at Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation (MAC) at Pratt & Whitney’s Media Day. In explaining the fabrication delay, Mr Fukuhara explained that there are no serious problems.

The main issue is getting the paperwork to catchup with the fabrication reality. He explained that the workforce had been become creative in building parts. They have discovered ways to fabricate faster and this differs from the paperwork describing how each part is made. To date 25% of the MRJ’s parts had been fabricated. The problem is that this has put the paperwork behind. In order to ensure certification goes through as planned, the paperwork has to match the actual fabrication.

MAC is now redoing all the paperwork to ensure it reflects the fabrication process on the factory floor. All the parts made will be redone to match the revised paperwork. The “delay” will enables the two processes to once again be in sync.

MAC is confident that although first flight will move out 18 months, production will be accelerated in an attempt to catchup with the original schedule. Mr Fukuhara would not provide a timetable for this catchup.

Bombardier wins WestJet

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WestJet announced it selected Bombardier to supply aircraft for its new regional airline, expected to launch in the second half of 2013. The airline will fly the Q400NG to new cities, existing destinations not currently connected by WestJet, and will allow for schedule improvements on certain routes where a smaller aircraft can efficiently provide greater frequency.

“We are very impressed with the Q400,” commented Gregg Saretsky, WestJet  President and CEO. WestJet said the “Q400′s combination of range, speed and seat density is the best choice”. WestJet has signed a letter of intent to purchase 20 Q400s with the option to purchase a further 25 aircraft.

The deal is important on many levels and was a “must win” for Bombardier. The Q400 now appears to be set for an excellent 2012. It is likely to be the favorite for the upcoming Garuda order (40) and is likely to be a front runner when Skywest starts to consider refleeting, too.

First new-build Sharklet-equipped A320 completed

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Airbus produced its first new-build A320 with Sharklets. Seen here at its roll-out in Toulouse, MSN 5098 will is one of several A320 aircraft in the certification flight-test campaign starting in May and lasting around 600 flight hours. The Sharklet tests follow the successful ‘early flight-test’ campaign with Airbus’ A320 MSN 001 test aircraft.

Seven new-build A320 Family aircraft fitted with both CFM56 and V2500 engine types will test production-standard Sharklets. The results of the tests will lead to certification of these fuel-saving devices on each combination of aircraft model and engine selection. The first member of the family to enter service with Sharklets will be a CFM56-powered A320, in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Sharklets are expected to reduce fuel burn by up to 3.5%, leading to annual CO2 reduction of around 700 tonnes per aircraft. This is equivalent to the CO2 produced by around 200 cars annually.