Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) identifies a need for ~28,200 passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats+) between 2012 and 2031 worth nearly $4 trillion, reconfirming an upward trend in the pace of new aircraft deliveries. Of these over 27,350 will be passenger aircraft valued at $ 3.7 trillion.
Passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% over the next 20 years, during which some 10,350 aircraft will be replaced by new more efficient models. By 2031 Airbus believes the world’s passenger fleet will have expanded by 110% from slightly over 15,550 today to over 32,550. In the same period, the world’s freighter fleet will almost double from 1,600 to 3,000 aircraft.
“Aside from growth in international traffic, by 2031 four of the world’s biggest traffic flows will all be domestic – US, China, Intra Western Europe and India – and these account for a third of world traffic,” says John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers. “In 20 years from now, China’s domestic passenger traffic will overtake the US domestic traffic to become the number one traffic flow in our forecast. Aviation is not just essential for international commerce, but also for domestic economies too.”
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- Asia Pacific will account for 35%of all new aircraft deliveries, followed by Europe and North America with 21% each
- Over 1,700 Very Large Aircraft (400 seats and above) will be delivered by 2031
- For twin-aisle aircraft (250 to 400 seats) some 6,970 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered
- Over 19,500 single-aisle aircraft will be delivered (43% of passenger deliveries by value, 71% by units)
- A third of deliveries will be in Asia Pacific followed by North America (25%) and Europe (22%)
- Some 30 % of all deliveries in this category will be for Low Cost Carriers.