IATA has published its latest 20 year aviation forecast, and projects that China will overtake the US in terms of passenger traffic by 2022. The following graphic shows the top 10 markets in 2016 and 2036. It is clear that traffic growth in Asia will change the landscape of major markets, with China, India, Indonesia and Japan taking 4 of the top 6, and Thailand joining the top 10 by 2036.
Total traffic is expected to nearly double to 7.8 billion passengers in 2036, with the Asia-Pacific region driving more than half of the new passengers.
The Bottom Line
IATA confirms the forecasts from Airbus and Boeing that all show massive growth in Asia over the next two decades. Infrastructure, from airports to air traffic control to trained pilots and mechanics, will challenge the industry over the next two decades. Understanding the magnitude of travel demand well in advance enables the industry to act in advance to provide the capacity requirements to meet that demand. We are all a part of a growth industry, with unique challenges and opportunities over the next two decades that will be interesting to watch.