Normally, the first day of an air show brings the most orders, but this year, day 2 outpaced day 1, with substantial activity. We report below the commitments reported by the OEMs for the day, but with a grain of salt, as some of the reported orders are changes to orders already placed.
United Airlines order for 100 Boeing 737MAX10 is a change in an existing order, likely moving up from previously ordered MAX9s, and does not increase overall backlog. Also, Bombardier disclosed that Ethiopian was a previously undisclosed customer for 5 Q400 models, which also does not increase backlog. Particularly with the MAX 10, given Boeing’s lack of transparency in reporting orders by model, we haven’t yet been able to compute how many of these orders are new, or cannibalizing other models in the MAX lineup.
Today’s order volume was 561 aircraft versus 477 yesterday, bringing the show total to 1,038 so far. We’ll see what days 3 and 4 bring, but historically, the later in the show, the lower the order levels.
Combining days 1 and 2, the market share to date is shown in the chart below:
More to come tomorrow.. stay tuned.