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Commercial Aviation Analysts


AIR (AirInsightResearch) released its new forecast of the commercial aviation market to 2030.  This analysis consists of a 32 page document with 37 charts highlighting the current and forecast market for the major aircraft OEMs (Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, COMAC, EMBRAER, Mitsubishi, UAC). Continue reading

India is a market that has been attractive for OEMs for many years.  The following two charts explain why.  The first chart shows how strongly the domestic air travel market has grown.  Typically, passenger traffic doubles every 15 years – in India between 1995 and 2010 traffic grew by four times.  If we look back 15 years from 2015, traffic has grown by over fives what it was.

Just to provide some perspective – India’s railway network is the world’s fourth largest and in 2014 transported 8.4 billion passengers. For every Indian domestic air passenger in 2014, 138 passengers took a train. Continue reading

New England-based Cape Air is something of a unique airline.  Based in Massachusetts this airline flies 83 Cessna 402s. But it is an airline not limited to this region. It flies two ATR42 in Micronesia, operates two Cessna Caravans in Florida and four Britten-Norman Islanders in the Caribbean in winter, bringing them to New England for the4 summer.    It has codeshare deals with American, jetBlue and United.  It also operates Essential Air Service flights. One can see why this is something of a unique operation. The airline is the largest independent regional.


The core of the airline are its nine-seater 402s.  The last 402 was built in 1987.  Cape Air is, by far, the largest 402 operator.  But as one can imagine, the 402 is aging.  Given the ATR42 experience, we had thought ATR had a lead on the 402 replacement, even if it is a much larger aircraft.

So… Continue reading

Recently, Airbus Group and Siemens signed an agreement in which they agreed to collaborate on hybrid electric propulsion systems.   This is ground breaking, but should be seen in context – Airbus has been prominently displaying its tiny electric powered E-Fan aircraft at air shows for some time.  In the noise and roar at air shows, this silent flier is easily ignored as it is not heard.  But Airbus clearly has been thinking about this concept for some time.

The item that caught our attention was this: Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus Group said “We believe that by 2030 passenger aircraft below 100 seats could be propelled by hybrid propulsion systems and we are determined to explore this possibility together with world-class partners like Siemens.”

This is a level of detail that has not been disclosed before.  It prompted a number of questions which we sent to Airbus Group, requesting their… Continue reading

It is well known that list prices for commercial aircraft are no guide to market pricing.  The list numbers are nowhere close to reality.

However, list prices do provide a useful guide to OEM market posture. List prices send signals to competitors even if competitors know that, ultimately, the customer will grind vendors down to the bone.  Let’s take a look at the commercial aircraft business and compare list pricing and seat capacity. Continue reading

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