Today on June 25, it is five years ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping signed a number of documents to confirm the partnership on the Sino-Russian wide-body aircraft, now known as the CR929. While some important steps have been taken since then, more recently it is all very quiet around the project. Happy anniversary CR929 but what is your status? Flashback to April 2012, when United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and COMAC signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the joint feasibility of a wide-body airliner as a rival to Boeing and Airbus. In May 2014, a Memorandum of Cooperation was agreed upon by the two countries. This was followed on June 25, 2016, by a number of agreements to cover the joint development, production, commercialization, and after-sales of the airliner. At the same time, UAC and COMAC entered a joint-venture to be registered in the Pudong (Shanghai) free trade zone. The aircraft was named C929 during a ceremony at the China Airshow in November 2016, which became CR929 in September 2017 when the joint-venture was established: China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation, or CRAIC for short. UAC President Yuri Slyusar announced that the aircraft would be designed in Russia by a combined team at an engineering center at Zhukovsky (Moscow) and build in China. The Russians would be responsible for the wings and main landing gear, while the Chinese would focus on the fuselage, horizontal and vertical tailplane, and nose gear. The engineering team offered three versions of the CR929: the standard -600 with a three-class layout for 280 passengers and a range of 12.000 kilometers, the shorter -500 for 230 passengers and a 14.000-kilometer range, and the extended -700 for 320 seats and a 10.000-kilometer range. The CR929 would be made of composites by up to fifty percent. A mock-up of the CR929 cockpit and the forward cabin was unveiled at the 2018 Zhuhai Airshow. (COMAC) The engines are also part of a Sino-Russian joint-venture, with United Engine Corporation (UEC) through Aviadvigatel and AECC Commercial Aircraft Engines working on technology for either individual or combined engines. UEC would develop the PD-35, which shares technology from the smaller PD-14 that has been doing test flights on the Irkut MC-21-310 since December last year. In a request for proposal, CRAIC also sounded out potential Western partners. It received interest from seven domestic and international suppliers, including Rolls-Royce with the Trent 7000 and General Electric which offered the GEnx. Five years on, progress on the project has been publicly shared on a few occasions. The design cleared the Gate 2 review in 2017, the shape and dimensions were confirmed during the Joint Concept Definition Phase in June 2018, and Gate 3 was completed in 2020. The most important public announcement was the unveiling of the cabin mock-up during the Zhuhai Airshow in November 2018, later attracting attention again at other events. The first composite forward fuselage section was completed just before the end of 2018. Business Class section of the CR929 cabin shown at Zhuhai Airshow. (COMAC) The most recent technical update dates back to March this year when the Central Hydrodynamic Institute (TsAGI) at Zhukovsky said it had tested a model in its T-128 wind tunnel with two different configurations. In particular, different wingtip designs were tried, all at Mach 0.96. Later this year, the institute will test different versions of the wing pylon and an adaptive trailing edge. CRAIC also said it has shortlisted more suppliers in March and planned to cut metal for the first aircraft before the end of this year. In June 2018, Leonardo signed an MoU with Kandge Investment Group to form a joint-venture for the production of fuselage components. In the TsAGI wind tunnel in Moscow, two versions of a wingtip of the CR929 have been tested earlier this year. (TsAGI) Political tensions behind the scenes Behind the scenes, the program has been dominated by political tensions. While the workshare has been specified in the 2016 agreements, the Russians and Chinese have lost some precious time battling over the sharing of technology as well as over specifications. This delayed the Gate 3 review, which originally was set to be completed in 2019. Then there have been conflicting reports on the time schedule of the CR929. The message from Russia was that the first flight would happen in 2023 and the first deliveries in 2025, while the Chinese took a more conservative approach and said they expected the first flight in 2025 and deliveries in 2027-2028. In July last year, the CEO of Irkut Aviation, Ravil Khakimov, said deliveries have slipped to 2028-2029 following difficulties of working with the Chinese partners. Then, last week, the Chinese Embassy in Moscow and the Aviation Industry of China (AVIC) gave a brief status update. They confirmed to the media that the first flight will happen in 2023 and the first deliveries in 2026. AVIC said it is expected to become a major supplier to the program. Fifth anniversary, no confirmed orders On the fifth anniversary of the project agreement, the CR929 has failed to attract any confirmed orders, although UAC has said before that Russian and Chinese airlines have made commitments for the new wide-body. Chief designer Chen Inchun said during an event in Shanghai in December that the CR929 expects to capture ten percent of the wide-body market between 2023 and 2045 or some 1.000 aircraft. The Chinese market would require 818 wide-bodies, of which the CR929 would like to capture at least 270, Inchun said. He added that the effects of the pandemic have been included in this outlook. These effects have translated into a slower demand for wide-bodies as long-haul travel will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2024. In response, Airbus and Boeing have reduced their wide-body production rates. CR929 subject of trade tensions Another factor will be a big determinator of the commercial success of the CR929: trade relations. Since Putin and Xi have signed their agreement in 2016, trade and political relations between them and the West have dramatically worsened. Additional sanctions have been imposed on both countries and more are set to come. While the US and EU said last week that they intend to end their 17-year long trade war over large commercial aircraft, they keep a watchful eye on what ‘third parties’ will be doing. The CR929, entirely funded by Russian and Chinese state aid, will be an easy target for more economical sanctions. It will also become much more difficult for Western suppliers to participate in the wide-body project if doing so is seen as a security issue. The Irkut MC-21 has suffered from sanctions as the Russians had to source their own composites and so most likely CRAIC will have to do the same for the CR929. In four weeks’ time, the Moscow Airshow MAKS 2021 is on. It would be a good opportunity to hear the latest on the CR929 from the Russian aviation industry there. Until then: happy anniversary CR929, but what is your status?
