Normally, the first day of a major European Airshow, Paris in odd years and in even years, brings a spate of new aircraft orders, with the second day typically a bit larger, the third similar to the first, and the fourth spotty.

This year brought only 153 first day orders at Paris. This is the lowest total in quite some time, reflecting two factors – the grounding of the and the expected downturn in the market as airlines and OEMs “catch up” to the record backlog levels they have enjoyed during the last few years. The following table shows day 1 orders for recent air shows:

As a leading indicator, this may suggest the potential for an economic recession in late 2020 or early 2021, but that could change once the returns to service. The market turmoil, for interim lift while the is grounded, and uncertainty regarding international all are having on potential aircraft orders. 2020 will either confirm the trend, on indicate a one-time blip, as happened in 2016. Given the long-term in the industry, we believe it to be the latter rather than the former.

Please follow and like us:
%d bloggers like this: