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United’s fleet planning revision is spurred by recent inputs from Boeing concerning the near-term availability of a MOM vector, ie some MAX-10 or 757 MAX, permitting higher frequencies on medium-haul thin citypairs, whereby United presently sees a lesser requirement for aircraft in the 787/A330/A330 NEO/A350 categories, replaced at the bottom by significant numbers of the new MOM type.
I think United’s re-consideration of their -1000 order is related to their -300ER order for 14 I think because they will be flying the same long haul routes the -1000 would be used for. First, United needed these planes quickly now, not years from now when the first -1000 delivery would be made, because United’s long haul services are not competitive, and at least so long as oil prices are low, the -300ER’s efficiency will be close to the -1000’s.
Second, United is using the Boeings to replace 747s. One may recall that United’s original A359 order was intended to replace the 747s. I think the long range wide-body mkt now is also focused on smaller planes than the 350-400 seaters (eg. SIA’s use of the A359 on North American routes and ANA’s recent announcement of numerous new long/thin routes to be flown by 787s, they were of course the launch customer for the 787).