The 737 MAX may be nearing the end of its grounding, as Boeing has been accomplishing some of the five steps necessary to re-certification and re-entry into service with the FAA. While international regulators may take longer, let’s assume that production continues through March 2020 at the current rate of 42 per month and at that point, approval is obtained from the various regulatory agencies. That would mean that 576 aircraft would have been produced from March 2019 through March 2020 that could relatively quickly be retrofit to re-enter service at that time.
With virtually no physical changes to the MAX but extensive software changes, the retrofit of the aircraft that have already been built should be somewhat like upgrading the operating system of your computer, and making certain that every application running on it works perfectly. This will entail some sophisticated testing and will likely require 10 to 15 days per aircraft to complete the repairs, provide post-storage maintenance, and obtain FAA
certification.
Analysis
How long will it take Boeing to clear its backlog of produced aircraft and have them delivered to airlines? AirInsight estimates are that Boeing can retrofit and re-deliver on average between 1 and 1.25 aircraft per day, or 30-38 per month from the second month after approval, with the first month only about 10 aircraft given the time required to complete the tasks and FAA approvals. This process will likely require between 19-20 months to complete, which if starting in January 2020 could stretch until the end of 2021 and, if everything doesn’t go just right, potentially reach into early 2022.
The 737 MAX may be nearing the end of its grounding, as Boeing has been accomplishing some of the 5 steps necessary to re-certification and re-entry into service with the FAA.While international regulators may take longer, let’s assume that production continues through March 2020 at the current rate of 42 per month and at that point, approval is obtained from the various regulatory agencies.That would mean that 576 aircraft would have been produced from March 2019 through March 2020 that could relatively quickly be retrofit to re-enter service at that time.
With virtually no physical changes to the MAX but extensive software changes, the retrofit of the aircraft that have already been built should be somewhat like upgrading the operating system of your computer, and making certain that every application running on it works perfectly.This will entail some sophisticated testing and will likely require 10 to 15 working days per aircraft to complete the repairs, provide post-storage maintenance, and obtain FAA certification.
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