Singapore Show Orders

This show follows the usual pattern – orders get announced for maximum media coverage.  And the orders are big. Boeing started with a massive order – it’s biggest ever – Lion Air of Indonesia finalized a firm order for 201 737 MAXs and 29 Next-Generation 737-900ERs. The agreement, first announced last November, includes options for an additional 150 airplanes. Lion is launch customer for the MAX-9. With orders for 230 airplanes valued at $22.4 billion (list prices), the deal is the largest commercial airplane order ever in Boeing’s history by both dollar value and total number of airplanes.

Not to be outdone, Airbus also made an order announcement. ALAFCO Aviation Lease And Finance Company, a Kuwait-based international aircraft leasing company, finalized a purchase order for 35 A320neo Family aircraft bringing its total backlog for the type to 85.  The firm contract is an increase from the previous agreement signed at the 2011 Dubai Airshow for 50 A320neo aircraft.The 2011 neo order included P&W GTF engines so we assume the same applies to the new order as well.

Then another unexpected order popped up. BOC Aviation said it has ordered 20 C919s. There has been little news from COMAC and the C9191 for a while.  And keeping the order game going, Bombardier announced and order for five Q400s.  This follows news last week of an order for up to 24 CRJ1000s. Interestingly the customers have not been announced though the assumption is that the CRJs are going to Garuda.

Podcast – 2012 and the CSeries

Airline Business Editor Max Kingsley-Jones wrote an intruiging piece on the Bombardier CSeries in 2012. So we called Max and had a chat about the airplane and its prospects.  The CS is seen as living in an awkward segment – bigger than regional jets but smaller than full size airliners.  Bombardier is very confident of this segment and the success Embraer has seen in this segment seems to endorse this confidence. Trunk liners have a spotty record all the same.  It is a tough space to work in.  That said Bombardier needs a few more “big name” customers and these are likely to be forthcoming once the program has better visibility. 2012 is an important year for the program as it approaches the first flight in 2013.  Since program delays are “new normal”, airlines are to be expected to hang back until they can more clearly see the program’s milestones being reached.

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Podcast – India Selects Rafale

After a long haul, the Indians appear to have selected the Dassault Rafale for their new fighter. Discussing the selection and implications with us are FlightGlobal’s Steve Trimble and G2Solution’s Michel Merluzeau.

The selection process took years. Virtually every fighter that could compete did. In the end it was a fight between Typhoon and Rafale. The lowest cost winner seems to be Rafale. As our guests explain, this selection could have implications for the outstanding deals in Brazil and UAE.

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Airbus to Enhance A330 Capabilities

Today La Tribune reports that Airbus is going to increase the MTOW of the A330-300 by five tonnes to 240 tonnes.  This should enable the A330-300 to increase its range by 400 miles. The additional weight will be offset by weight reduction from the design where A340 requirements are no longer needed.  The A340 and A330 share a common fuselage.

The move is clearly not only to occupy the segment forgone by the elimination of the A340, it is also an attempt to close the perceived gap between the A330 as we know it and the Boeing 787, which offers longer range.

Airbus newest product, the A350, will be larger than the 787 and similar in size to the 777 series. Boeing has two models that bracket the A350; the 787 at the lower end and the 777 on the upper end.  By adding more capabilities to the A330 Airbus closes what many have thought to be a key gap on the smaller side of the market.

According La Tribune Airbus should be able to offer this enhanced -300 between three and four years from now.

The A330 is proving to be a remarkably resilient and flexible design. John Leahy, Airbus COO Customers, points out that since the announcement of the 787, Airbus has sold 740 A330s. Clearly writing off the A330 is premature, and Airbus enhancements should provide additional life to an already successful program.

Al-Li an alternative to CFRP

Alcoa announced today that it is expanding its aluminum lithium (Al-Li) capacity and capabilities at three locations to meet growing aerospace demand for its newest alloys.  These alloys, introduced last year and now patented, allow OEMs to build dramatically lighter and lower-cost airplanes compared to composite alternatives.

This news is important when looking at what OEMs are doing developing ever lighter airplanes.  Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) have selected the CRFP route whereas Bombardier has gone the Al-Li route for its CS. Alcoa believes its product offers less risk to OEMs than CFRP.  While CFRP is well known in military use, it has been used less on commercial airplanes until quite recently.

ALCOA further states that its new technologies:

  • lower the weight of an airplane by up to 10% vs. composite-intensive planes;
  • lower the cost to manufacture, operate and repair planes by up to 30% vs. composite-intensive planes, and at significantly lower production risk;
  • allow for a 12% increase in fuel efficiency, on top of the 15% from new engines; and
  • deliver passenger comfort features equivalent to composite-intensive planes, such as higher cabin pressure, large windows and higher humidity.

The last two items deserve special attention. Offering this much in fuel savings is highly significant and then being able to allow for larger windows (like on the 787) and better cabin pressure/humidity is compelling.

 

Big airplane sales mean big engine sales

This morning CFM provided the following PR: “CFM International (CFM) had a record year in 2011, logging orders for 1,500 commercial, military and spare CFM56 engines and commitments for 3,056 LEAP engines for a combined value of $51.7 billion at list price.

As the company logs record commitments, CFM is also achieving record production rates for the CFM56 product line. The company has built more than 1,000 engines per year since 2006, and the rate has grown steadily. In 2011, CFM delivered more than 1,300 engines, the highest rate in the industry, compared to 1,250 engines built in 2010.  Current plans are to reach more than 1,600 engines per year by 2014.”

This is what a great year looks like.