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For medium and long-hauls, the twin engine passenger aircraft are the backbone of the fleet.  This first chart demonstrates how twin engine aircraft have become the dominant type.  In 2000, twins were about 50% of the fleet.  By 1Q16 this had risen to about 70% of the widebody fleet. Continue reading

During the Farnborough Air Show, Airbus announced a production rate cut for the A380, reducing production to one aircraft per month.  This rate cut reflects the waning backlog for the aircraft, which has yet to emerge as a favorite among airlines, although it is a favorite among passengers.  This rate cut also buys time for Airbus, and leasing company Amedeo, to garner orders for the A380 should demand begin to increase for the type.

Has the A380 program peaked?  We don’t think so and offer this report (buy it here) laying out our thinking.


In a previous story we wrote about the growing demand for pilots.  The demand is real and well documented.  But what about the other side of the equation?  Where will these pilots come from?

In its recently released study, Boeing notes a demand for 617,000 airline pilots by 2035.  They go on to say: “Meeting this demand will require innovative solutions — focused on educational outreach and career pipeline programs — to inspire the next generation of pilots, technicians, and cabin crew. New technologies, devices, and training methods will be needed to meet a wide range of learning styles. The growing diversity of aviation personnel will also require instructors to have cross-cultural and cross-generational skills to engage tomorrow’s workforce.”  Airbus forecasts a need for 560,000 pilots by 2035. The demand for pilots is not exclusively a commercial issue.  Even the USAF… Continue reading

Delta Air Lines seems to be ending three routes to Tokyo’s Narita. Since Tokyo is a major market, the changes must be really noteworthy.  Delta’s Japanese hub was created by Northwest Airlines.  Recent changes to the US-Japan bilateral herald important developments.

The US and Japan agreed earlier this year to open Tokyo’s second airport, Haneda, to more US service.  Since Haneda is closer to the city, it is popular with people who want to visit Tokyo, rather than transition to another Asian city.   Delta has already presaged its Asia network changes by building Seattle as a hub.  Delta has said it will stop JFK-Narita this fall and it also plans to stop service between Narita-Osaka and Narita-Bangkok.  Delta is waiting for the DoT ‘s approval for two new routes: MSP and LAX to Haneda.

What do all these network changes mean for Delta?… Continue reading

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