Airbus
Boeing is having a great show in Dubai. Today there was news of a key Boeing regional customer, flydubai, ordering 150 A321s.
This decision should be less surprising than it appears.
Flydubai, a Dubai-based low-cost carrier and sister airline to Emirates, has operated an all-Boeing 737 fleet since its launch in 2009. As of late 2025, it flies 95 Boeing 737s (mostly 737 MAXs) with a substantial backlog of additional 737 MAX orders (bringing total committed Boeing narrowbodies to around 175–200 including deliveries and options).
Today’s Airbus deal is flydubai’s first-ever order from Airbus, explicitly described by the airline and analysts as a move to diversify its narrowbody fleet. The A321neo offers superior range, fuel efficiency, and capacity compared to the 737 MAX 10 (Boeing’s competing model), allowing flydubai to serve longer/thinner routes. Any airline with ambitions to operate longer routes defaults to the A321.
The key issue here is the absence of the MAX 10. Had the MAX 10 been available, the costs of switching OEMs and models would be unattractive. But absent the MAX 10, these costs cannot be avoided. The complexity cannot be avoided. Moreover, with 150 orders, over time these costs dwindle as a fleet that size creates its own critical mass.
Moreover, remember there’s the flydubai order for 30 Boeing 787-9s (its first widebodies, starting ~2026–2030) from the 2023 Dubai Airshow. The A321 is a pivot for flydubai’s narrowbody growth toward Airbus, ending Boeing’s monopoly on that part of its fleet — but Boeing remains in the picture for existing commitments and widebodies. It’s a big win for Airbus and a symbolic setback for Boeing in one of its former “fortress” customers.
Boeing MAX 8 Recovery Continues
Only 20 MAX orders have been announced at the show so far. These aircraft were ordered by African rather than UAE carriers. It should be noted that UAE carriers, flydubai excluded, focus on long range twin aisles models.
From early on this year we noted and reported on Boeing’s turnaround. This is especially noticeable for the MAX program. Within that program, the MAX 8 is by far the most important. The MAX 8’s recovery is crucial for Boeing to move on MAX 7 and MAX 10 certifications. It appears that the MAX 8 program is achieving that steadily. Moving from the Calhoun-era to the Ortberg-era takes time.
The following data model provides the numbers to back the statement about the MAX 8 program recovery. Using the menu at the top you can select an operator to see how its 2025 MAX 8 production and deliveries are going. As regular readers know, that red curve is the one to watch and you want to see it declining.
In summary, the flydubai deal was telegraphed and expected. It would naïve to count out Boeing and its MAX program not only at flydubai, but at any operator.
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