Aer Lingus takes two A321XLRs – some considerations

In an unusual delivery event, Aer Lingus took delivery of two A321XLRs on the same day. [caption id="attachment_88895" align="aligncenter" width="415"] Copyright Dirk Grothe[/caption] This brings XLR deliveries to three for the year. A fourth is the Airbus testbed. Airbus has a lot riding on this model. Like other A321 models, specifically the LR, it operates in a heady near monopoly. Boeing's missing MAX 10 is one issue in Airbus' favor. The other is that Boeing's MAX family does not offer the payload range these A321 models do. [caption id="attachment_88897" align="alignright" width="246"] AirInsight[/caption] The XLR comes with a significant promise. However, even though it is a derivative of the A321neo family, it has not had an uncomplicated gestation. The table highlights that Airbus can deliver an A321NX (the most popular model) in an average of 26 days between the first flight and delivery. This reflects a maturing process. For example, the A321NX is delivered more quickly than the A320N. Nobody was expecting that —certainly not us! Another case in point is the A319N. Compared to the original A319, it is now a niche model, and the production-to-delivery process takes nearly half a year. In a previous post, we showed how Airbus is seeing a sharp rise in interest in the more capable models. This is part of the confidence in the XLR, and it should maintain that momentum. The XLR's additional fuel tank required more time for EASA certification, and Boeing is partly to blame. Airbus must find a way to accelerate XLR delivery rates. The aircraft is part of the most in-demand commercial model. But being in demand is like any fashion- it can dissipate as quickly as it appears. Aer Lingus plans to launch these models in the US, Minneapolis, Nashville, and Indianapolis. This exploits the XLR range advantage. Like the 787 at its launch, the ability to reach out across considerable distances and avoid a hub made that aircraft popular among operators. The difference is that the 787 is an aircraft operated by big airlines. The XLR is a sharp tool, but smaller airlines have ordered it. The XLR is relatively low-risk for opening new routes and markets. It would be great if the operating airline had fed on both ends. Aer Lingus has feed on one end of these US markets. Our review of the Indianapolis market concluded that the market looked reasonable. In conclusion, it is exciting to see the XLR enter service. Its promising economics and capabilities are greeted with fanfare. Suppose Airbus accelerates deliveries, and more prominent airlines demonstrate that XLR's capabilities are up to the promise. In that case, we might see a step change in single-aisle long-haul air service.

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