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The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) latest report for April 2024 revealed a promising picture for the air cargo industry, focusing on regional performance and growth compared to the previous month.
Strong Start to Q2: Double-Digit Growth Continues
Building on March’s impressive performance, April witnessed a solid 11.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase in global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs).
This marks the fifth month of double-digit growth, further solidifying the continuous positive trend. However, the seasonally adjusted CTKs experienced a modest 0.2% increase compared to March, highlighting a slight month-on-month slowdown.
While demand continues its positive trend, industry-wide Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers (ACTKs), which reflect global capacity, increased by 7.1% YoY. This represents a slower yet positive growth compared to previous months.
This change can be attributed to a potential stabilization in capacity growth, primarily driven by returning passenger aircraft with belly cargo capacity. Here’s a breakdown of April’s growth compared to March:
- Demand Growth (CTKs): April (11.1%) vs March (10.3%) – Slight increase
- Capacity Growth (ACTKs): April (7.1%) vs March (7.3%) – Slight decrease
- Seasonally Adjusted CTKs: April (0.2%)
Regional Highlights: A Shift in Leadership
While all regions experienced growth in April, Asia Pacific Airlines emerged as the frontrunners with a 14.0% YoY surge in demand. This growth was mainly driven by intra-regional solid traffic (+13.2%) and the Asia-Europe route (+17.7%).
Notably, the Middle East, which enjoyed a seven-month reign in leading regional growth, saw a slower growth of 9.4% YoY.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of regional performance, including growth figures and route highlights:
- Asia-Pacific (Strongest): 14.0% YoY growth, driven by intra-regional and Asia-Europe routes.
- Europe: 12.7% YoY growth, with intra-European routes experiencing a remarkable 34.4% increase, the highest in over a decade.
- Middle East: 9.4% YoY growth, with Europe-Middle East routes (+30.1%) performing better than Middle East-Asia routes (+10.4%).
- Latin America: 11.7% YoY growth.
- North America (Weakest): 7.0% YoY growth, but Asia-North America routes showed positive signs (+7.3%).
- Africa: 10.6% YoY growth, with Africa-Asia routes experiencing a significant surge (+25.8%).
Economic Factors and Load Factors
The operating environment presents both positive and uncertain elements:
Positive: Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for global manufacturing and new export orders turned positive for the first time in two years, indicating potential expansion in trade.
Moreover, inflation remained relatively stable across major economies (US: 3.4%, EU: 2.6%, Japan: 2.5%), with China showing a positive sign (0.2% YoY increase). In April, the load factor increased by 1.6% compared to previous months.
Uncertainties: Global cross-border trade contracted slightly by 0.8% in April. The long-term impact of geopolitical factors like the war in Ukraine remains unclear.
Conclusion: A Promising Outlook with Cautious Optimism
Despite the slight slowdown in month-on-month growth and economic uncertainties, April’s figures present a positive view for the air cargo industry. The sustained double-digit growth and positive PMI signals suggest strong demand in the coming months.
However, as usual, careful monitoring of economic and geopolitical factors and capacity management remains crucial for continuous growth and ensuring long-term success.
Featured Image: MasAir Boeing 767-300F. Photo: Aero Icarus via Wikimedia Commons.
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