Yesterday, there was a fascinating TRB meeting in DC. The airline’s subcommittee session was especially interesting. There were many discussions about whether and how air travel might have changed.
What does the data show? We split up the traffic and flights using data from FlightRadar24 and the TSA daily counts. Here’s what we find.
That theory about Tuesday holds.
However, we see this by breaking down the data from January 2019 through the end of last month.
In 2019, Tuesday was a strong travel day, Tuesday stayed soft for years, and it seems in 2024, Tuesday is becoming more like other days of the week.
In general, though, volumes continue to grow.
The market exceeded 2019 levels only in September last year. From January this year, we have seen significant traffic growth—the slowest travel season of the year.
If you wonder about flights feeling tighter than ever, here’s data to back your senses. Yes it is getting tighter as flights fill up
And prepare for it to get worse. Traffic growth is faster than the number of flights. You don’t need a physics degree to know the outcome of these trends.
That strong traffic growth should be put into context. Last year saw good traffic growth, and 2025 is tracking even better.
This, of course, underscores the frustration with Airbus and Boeing deliveries. US airlines need the A321s and MAX 10s. The capacity shortage is going to drive up fares, especially for the “normal” travel hours. We expect to see fares also rise for less popular flight times and, yes, even Tuesdays.
The following charts show the same data, and traffic is growing faster than the number of flights.
Is there a capacity crunch? If supply is truly limited, and demand grows, market forces will drive up fares.
This summer is going to be interesting. The big three are taking deliveries of A321s as fast as Airbus produces them. MRO shops are busy getting aircraft fixed and back into service. Even Southwest, taking MAX 8s when they really need MAX 7s, might benefit from having that extra capacity because the market will buy it.
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